Puma's Legal Windfall Meets a Skeptical Market

A US Supreme Court ruling may let Puma reclaim €80M in duties, but operational losses are projected through 2026. The company is cutting costs and jobs while navigating high short interest.

A surprise legal victory in the United States could deliver a much-needed cash injection to Puma, even as the German sportswear giant navigates one of its most challenging periods. The U.S. Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, ruling, which found a 1977 act did not empower the president to impose tariffs, opens a path for Puma's U.S. subsidiary to reclaim approximately €80 million in duties paid since February 2025. This potential refund arrives as the company projects operational losses stretching into 2027.

The road to reimbursement, however, is neither automatic nor guaranteed. U.S. customs authorities are expected to launch a refund portal by the end of April, requiring importers to actively file claims. Market observers caution against baking these repayments into 2026 financial models just yet. Complicating matters, the U.S. government is already preparing new tariffs under a different legal framework, suggesting any financial relief for Puma may be short-lived.

Operationally, the picture remains stark. The company's 2025 fiscal year saw currency-adjusted revenue plummet 8.1% to €7.3 billion, while operating profit (EBIT) swung dramatically from a €548.7 million gain to a €357.2 million loss. CEO Arthur Hoeld has guided for another operating loss in 2026, projected between €50 and €150 million, with a return to profitability not expected before 2027. A restructuring program is advancing, with inventory reduction proceeding faster than planned. The company aims to reach normalized inventory levels by the end of this year, though the effort includes cutting an additional 900 jobs by end-2026, with associated one-time costs of up to €75 million in 2025 alone.

Amid these fundamental pressures, the stock has shown recent technical strength, breaking above its 50-day moving average near €22.38 and currently trading around €23.81. This price action places the equity roughly 14% above its 200-day average. This upward move comes despite—or perhaps partly because of—significant market skepticism. Short interest in Puma shares stands at 8.08%, more than double the twelve-month average of 3.41%. A sustained rally could force short sellers to cover their positions, potentially amplifying gains.

The company's brand appeal provides a glimmer of hope. A recent 30th-anniversary collaboration with Pokémon sold out quickly after launch, demonstrating enduring consumer demand in its direct channels. Strategic stability is bolstered by its largest shareholder, Anta Sports Products, which holds approximately 29% of the company after an investment totaling about €1.51 billion. While Anta has repeatedly ruled out a full takeover, its stake is seen as crucial for Puma's ambitions in the Greater China market.

The coming weeks offer critical milestones. On April 30, Puma will release its first-quarter 2026 results, offering the first concrete data on whether CEO Hoeld's cost-cutting measures are taking hold. This date coincides with the anticipated launch of the U.S. customs refund portal. A positive earnings surprise could trigger a short squeeze. Shortly after, on May 19, the annual general meeting in Herzogenaurach will see shareholders formally vote on suspending the dividend for the loss-making 2025 fiscal year. For now, the stock's recovery appears to be running well ahead of the company's operational turnaround.