PayPal's Venmo and Canva Bets Face a Critical Earnings Test

PayPal stock down 40% from peak as it pivots strategy. Key tests ahead with Q1 earnings and shareholder vote on new exec compensation plan.

PayPal's stock, trading at €41.51, finds itself nearly 40% below its July 2025 peak as the company navigates a pivotal strategic reset. With a key earnings report and shareholder meeting on the horizon, the success of its dual offensive—transforming Venmo and embedding payments into platforms like Canva—will soon be measured.

The company’s presence at the Canva Create event in Los Angeles this week highlights one prong of this strategy. A new integration allows Canva’s 265 million monthly users worldwide to embed PayPal payment links or QR codes directly into their designs. This move targets the booming social commerce sector, projected to surpass $1 trillion in global sales by 2028, by turning creative content into instant points of sale.

Concurrently, PayPal is executing a structural overhaul of its digital assets business. On April 20, 2026, its cryptocurrency services will formally migrate from PayPal, Inc. to a dedicated entity, PayPal Digital, Inc. This underscores the division's growing scale, exemplified by the PYUSD stablecoin. In 2025, its circulation skyrocketed by 600% to $3.6 billion, capturing a 1.6% share of the stablecoin market.

Back in its core branded checkout business, pressures are mounting. This high-margin segment saw growth slow to a mere 1% in the fourth quarter, down from 6% a year earlier. While total payment volume reached a massive $1.79 trillion in 2025 and revenue grew 4.3% to $33.2 billion, the explosive expansion of past years has faded. User growth in the U.S. is also stagnating, with an expected increase of less than 1% to roughly 92.1 million accounts in 2026.

This stagnation is the driving force behind the aggressive remake of Venmo. The peer-to-peer app is being systematically converted into a broader commerce platform. Central to this effort is an enhanced rewards program offering users up to 5% cashback at selected merchants, including Sephora, Ulta, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut. The goal is to boost transaction frequency and profitability from existing accounts rather than chasing new user sign-ups.

Financially, the stock has declined over 16% since the start of the year, though a recent rebound has lifted it above the 50-day moving average of €37.93. The immediate future holds two critical events. On May 5, the company will report first-quarter 2026 results, offering the first concrete data on whether the Venmo rewards push and Canva integration are moving the needle on engagement and growth.

Shortly after, on May 19, the annual shareholder meeting will convene. Investors will vote on a new stock option plan proposing up to 39.1 million new shares for executive compensation, introducing potential dilution. For CEO Enrique Lores, who took the helm in February 2026, this spring represents the true test of his proclaimed "reset year," with the upcoming earnings report poised to deliver the next significant move for the stock.