Oracle Shares: Poised for a Recovery Rally?

Oracle US68389X1054

Oracle's stock is navigating a potential inflection point after a period of significant volatility. Having plummeted from its record peak in September, the equity is now attracting cautious buyer interest. Recent strategic developments and analyst confidence are fueling speculation about a sustained turnaround, but questions remain about whether this marks a definitive bottom.

The narrative around Oracle is defined by a striking contrast. On one hand, the company's future revenue pipeline has swelled to unprecedented levels. Its Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO)—representing contracted future revenue—have surged past $500 billion. This explosion is primarily fueled by long-term cloud agreements with artificial intelligence leaders, including Nvidia.

On the other hand, the share price tells a different story. Currently trading approximately 40% below its 52-week high of €280.70 reached on September 10, 2025, the market appears focused on near-term execution risks. Investor apprehension centers on the substantial capital expenditures required for data center expansion to support this growth, which could pressure margins in the short term. This disconnect suggests the market is pricing in the cost of fulfillment rather than a lack of demand.

Strategic Catalysts: TikTok and AI Roadmap

Two key announcements are serving as catalysts for renewed optimism. The most concrete is the finalization of Oracle's involvement with TikTok's US operations. Reports indicate the "TikTok USDS Joint Venture" will be formally sealed on January 22, 2026. Under this deal, Oracle will secure a 15% stake in the US unit and become the security partner responsible for housing user data. This partnership is viewed as a powerful endorsement of the sovereignty and security of Oracle's cloud infrastructure.

Concurrently, the company's artificial intelligence strategy is receiving validation. Analysts at Wells Fargo reiterated their Overweight rating, citing significant upside potential tied to Oracle's AI infrastructure. Their thesis projects that workloads related to OpenAI alone could contribute up to 30% to the company's results in the coming years. This outlook is supported by the planned January release of the "Oracle AI Database 26ai," a product designed to simplify the integration of AI capabilities for enterprise clients.

Technical Positioning and Key Dates

From a technical perspective, the stock shows signs of attempting to stabilize. With a recent close at €165.72, it holds a 48.73% premium above its 52-week low of €111.42 from April 22, 2025. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 69.3, while the stock trades below its key moving averages, indicating it remains in a broader corrective phase despite recent weekly gains.

All eyes are now on January 22, 2026. The formal closure of the TikTok deal could act as a significant confidence booster regarding Oracle's strategic direction. If management can successfully justify its heavy investments with accelerating growth in the AI sector, the current substantial discount to the all-time high may present an intriguing setup for the year ahead.

Key Performance Data:
* Last Close (Wednesday): €165.72
* 7-Day Change: +7.96%
* 30-Day Change: -2.71%
* Year-to-Date (YTD) Change: +2.41%
* 52-Week High: €280.70 (10/09/2025)
* Distance from 52-Week High: -40.96%
* 52-Week Low: €111.42 (22/04/2025)
* Distance from 52-Week Low: +48.73%
* 50-Day Average: €187.53
* 100-Day Average: €211.19
* 200-Day Average: €188.17
* 30-Day Annualized Volatility: 53.84%