On-Chain Data Reveals a Bitcoin Market at a Crossroads

Bitcoin CRYPTO000BTC

The Bitcoin market currently presents a complex and contradictory picture. While certain on-chain metrics are flashing clear warning signs, others suggest a quieter phase of accumulation by major players. This divergence creates a challenging environment for gauging the next directional move, with a key profitability indicator pointing to increasing investor stress.

Recent blockchain activity highlights a significant split in institutional and large-scale investor behavior:

• Spot ETF Outflows Continue: U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have experienced notable capital withdrawal. Over the past week, outflows exceeded $375 million, potentially marking the fourth consecutive week of net redemptions. This trend acts as a clear headwind for short-term market sentiment.
• Major Holders Increase Exposure: In a contrasting move, blockchain addresses holding over 1,000 BTC—often referred to as "whales"—have reportedly added approximately 53,000 BTC to their collective holdings within a single week. This represents the most substantial buying spree from this cohort since November of last year.
• Long-Term Conviction Holds: Data further indicates that long-term holders are largely maintaining their positions, suggesting seasoned investors are not engaging in widespread capitulation despite recent price pressure.

Profitability Metric Signals Sustained Selling Pressure

A critical on-chain gauge, the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), has entered a zone that has historically preceded more pronounced bearish phases. This metric essentially measures whether coins being moved on the network are, on average, sold at a profit or a loss.

The aSOPR has recently fallen into a range between 0.92 and 0.94, firmly below the neutral level of 1.0. This indicates that the average Bitcoin being sold or transferred is currently being disposed of at a loss of roughly 6% to 8%. Analysts emphasize that the concern lies not in a brief dip but in the persistence of this trend. The current pattern does not resemble a typical, swift market correction where the indicator quickly recovers above 1.0. Instead, it points to sustained selling pressure where a meaningful number of market participants are realizing losses.

The key inference from market experts is clear: Should the aSOPR fail to recover above the 1.0 threshold in the near term, the likelihood increases that the market could transition into a broader, bearish phase.

Technical Landscape and Macro Pressures

Following its decline from recent highs, Bitcoin's price has found some stability but remains capped below significant technical resistance levels. The broader environment adds further pressure, with macroeconomic concerns and uncertainty surrounding future ETF flows weighing on investor psychology.

Market analysis identifies the region around $60,000 as a crucial support zone. However, some on-chain evaluations suggest the possibility of a deeper cyclical low, with approximately $55,000 cited as a level linked to the network's "realized price."

The overall market perspective remains one of precarious balance. While selling pressure is elevated, a "classic" capitulation event—which has often signaled a definitive market bottom in previous cycles—has not yet been reached according to current assessments. This tense situation is reflected in the price performance: Bitcoin is down roughly 28.9% over the past 30 days.

@ boerse-global.de | CRYPTO000BTC ON-CHAIN