Nvidia Shares Gain Momentum from Dual Analyst and Market Catalysts

Nvidia US67066G1040

Nvidia Corporation is experiencing a favorable shift in sentiment driven by two concurrent developments. A prominent research firm has significantly raised its price target on the stock, while separate market reports indicate potential new opportunities within the crucial Chinese market. For investors, the confluence of these events centers on a single critical question: the sustainability of record demand for artificial intelligence hardware.

In a recent update, Wolfe Research reaffirmed its "Outperform" rating on Nvidia and increased its price target to $275 from $250. The firm's optimism is primarily rooted in expectations for sustained, robust demand for integrated data center solutions, specifically rack-scale systems built around Nvidia's GPU platforms.

The analysis projects a substantial ramp in deliveries. Wolfe anticipates that weekly shipments of Blackwell-based racks could reach 1,000 units by the end of 2025. Looking further ahead, the firm models total deliveries of 50,000 to 60,000 racks for the full year 2026. A key component of this thesis is the assumption of stable profit margins, suggesting that growth is expected to be both high-volume and financially lucrative.

An Ambitious Revenue Model Underpins the Outlook

Wolfe's updated roadmap places clear emphasis on Nvidia's upcoming Blackwell and Rubin architecture cycles. For 2026, the firm calculates 55,000 Blackwell rack shipments, supplemented by an additional 20,000 Rubin-based racks. A shift is forecast for 2027, with 55,000 Rubin racks and 15,000 Rubin Ultra racks projected.

The underlying financial model is notably ambitious. By combining an estimated 35% growth in GPU unit volume with higher average selling prices, Wolfe's bullish scenario points to potential data center revenue exceeding $450 billion by 2027. While this represents an optimistic case rather than a base forecast, it underscores the perceived leverage from both platform transitions and pricing power.

China Market Access Shows Tentative Signs of Easing

Alongside the analyst action, market participants are assessing reports that Chinese regulatory bodies have granted conditional approval for major AI firms—including DeepSeek, ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent—to purchase Nvidia's H200 AI chips. According to media sources, initial orders could involve meaningful volume.

This development is particularly significant given the historical context of export controls, which have repeatedly constrained Nvidia's access to the Chinese semiconductor market. Consequently, investors are closely scrutinizing the durability and scope of these reported approvals.

Key Takeaways:
* Wolfe Research raises its price target to $275 (from $250), maintaining an "Outperform" rating.
* Catalysts include anticipated scaling of Blackwell rack deliveries and expectations for stable margins.
* Reports emerge of conditional approvals in China for H200 chip purchases by major AI companies.
* The next major catalyst is the earnings report scheduled for February 25, 2026.

Regarding recent trading activity, Nvidia's stock closed at $190.30, trading just below its recent 52-week high. This price action suggests the market is currently aligning with, rather than questioning, the positive narrative.

The next concrete test for market sentiment arrives with the February 25 release of Q4 results for fiscal year 2026. This report will reveal whether the momentum in the data center segment continues to justify elevated expectations and how convincing the outlook for the Rubin platform appears.