Novo Nordisk's Buyback and Subscription Push Amidst Revenue Headwinds

Novo Nordisk spends billions on share buybacks while forecasting a 5-13% sales decline by 2026. The firm launches new Wegovy models and an oral pill to fight U.S. competition and falling prices.

Novo Nordisk's stock is caught in a tug-of-war between aggressive corporate action and sobering financial forecasts. While management deploys billions to repurchase shares, signaling confidence, its own outlook warns of a significant revenue decline. This contradiction highlights the intense pressures facing the Danish pharmaceutical giant as it battles for dominance in the lucrative weight-loss drug market.

The company's share buyback program, initiated in February, is proceeding at pace. Novo Nordisk has already spent approximately 2.84 billion Danish kroner to acquire around 11 million B shares at an average price of 257.56 kroner. These repurchases, part of a broader 15-billion-kroner initiative, now represent about 0.6% of the company's total share capital. This substantial financial commitment stands in stark contrast to the operational guidance. For the full 2026 fiscal year, Novo Nordisk anticipates a currency-adjusted sales decline of between 5% and 13%, primarily driven by mounting competition and falling prices in the United States, a market accounting for roughly 60% of global revenue.

To defend its position, the company is launching multiple commercial offensives. A new subscription model for its injectable weight-loss drug Wegovy is now available to self-paying U.S. patients through telehealth platforms like Ro, Weight Watchers, and LifeMD. Monthly costs for the Wegovy pen range from $329 for a three-month commitment down to $249 for an annual subscription, with potential annual savings for patients estimated between $120 and $1,200. Simultaneously, the higher-dose Wegovy HD (7.2 mg) is being offered directly to consumers via the GoodRx platform at $399 per month, or $1,197 for a three-month supply.

Novo Nordisk is also bolstering the case for its oral Wegovy pill, introduced in January. Recent data from the ORION study, presented at a conference in San Diego, showed the 25-milligram tablet achieved significantly greater weight loss than Eli Lilly's rival product, Foundayo. The pill also demonstrated better gastrointestinal tolerability and was preferred by 84% of patients in a separate survey. These efforts are part of a strategic push to recapture market share in the critical U.S. segment.

These operational moves coincide with a significant workforce restructuring. The company is currently hiring approximately 2,000 new employees in production, research, and commercial functions. This expansion, however, follows the deepest job cuts in Novo Nordisk's history—nearly 7,800 positions eliminated in 2025. CEO Mike Doustdar's strategy now focuses on selective growth within the most profitable business areas.

Investors remain skeptical, with the stock's performance reflecting deep concerns. Shares currently trade around €34.65, more than 50% below their 52-week high of €70.13. Since the start of the year, the stock has lost nearly 22% of its value. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 25 indicates the shares are technically oversold, though they have recovered about 14% from a late-March low.

All eyes are now on the company's first-quarter report, scheduled for May 6. The results will provide the first concrete evidence on whether early prescription trends for the Wegovy pill, the launch of the HD version, and the new subscription models can begin to offset the pervasive price pressure threatening the top line.