Newmont's Outlook Overshadows Record Performance

Newmont Mining's stellar 2025 results overshadowed by 2026 guidance forecasting a 10% drop in gold production, sharply higher costs, and a dispute with JV partner Barrick Gold.

While Newmont Mining delivered a landmark financial performance for 2025, investor focus has swiftly shifted to a less promising forecast for the coming year. The market's reaction highlights a fundamental truth: future guidance often carries more weight than past results. Concerns are centered on projected lower gold output, significantly higher costs, and a burgeoning dispute with joint-venture partner Barrick Gold.

Stellar 2025 Results: Operational and Financial Strength

The world's leading gold producer concluded 2025 with exceptional fourth-quarter figures, comfortably surpassing analyst estimates. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.52, against a consensus forecast of $1.97, while revenue reached $6.82 billion versus an expected $6.19 billion. This contributed to an adjusted net income of $2.8 billion for the quarter.

For the full year, the company reported a net income of $7.2 billion, with an adjusted net income of $7.6 billion, equating to $6.89 per diluted share. A standout metric was the record annual free cash flow of $7.3 billion. Newmont returned a total of $3.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks during the year, simultaneously reducing its debt load by a comparable amount. The company finished 2025 with a net cash position of $2.1 billion and total liquidity of $11.6 billion.

The 2026 Guidance: A Dual Challenge of Volume and Cost

Despite these robust numbers, the market reacted negatively to the outlook for 2026. Newmont anticipates attributable gold production of approximately 5.26 million ounces next year, a drop of roughly 10% from the 5.9 million ounces produced in 2025. Management cited planned sequencing and transition phases at several key assets as the primary reasons. These include the ramp-up of the new Ahafo North operation in Ghana alongside lower output from the existing Ahafo South mine, reduced production during a pit transition at Peñasquito, and lower grades during a panel cave transition at Cadia.

Potentially more concerning for investors is the sharp projected increase in costs. All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) are forecast to rise to about $1,680 per ounce in 2026, up significantly from $1,358 per ounce in 2025. This increase is driven by higher planned sustaining capital expenditures of approximately $1.95 billion and development capital spending of around $1.4 billion for projects like the Cadia Panel Caves, Tanami Expansion 2, and the Red Chris feasibility study. The central question for 2026 will be whether Newmont can manage this cost inflation while preserving stable margins.

Escalating Tensions in Nevada

Adding a layer of uncertainty is a formal dispute with partner Barrick Gold over the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, which is 61.5% owned and operated by Barrick. Newmont has issued a "Notice of Default" to Barrick, alleging failures in the management of the JV. Reports indicate Newmont accuses Barrick of diverting funds from the joint venture to develop Barrick's wholly-owned Fourmile project. In response, Barrick CEO Natascha Viljoen stated that both parties are focused on improving the performance of the Nevada assets and acting in their respective shareholders' interests.

Dividend Hike Contrasts with Analyst Caution

On a positive note, Newmont's board approved an increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.26 per share for Q4 2025, a 4% rise from the previous quarter. The dividend is payable on March 26, 2026, to shareholders of record on March 3, 2026. The company has also repurchased approximately $1.5 billion worth of its shares since the buyback program's inception, including $75 million settled in January and February of 2026.

Analyst responses were cautious. BMO Capital Markets lowered its price target to $140 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating. Similarly, Bank of America slightly reduced its target to $134, retaining a "Buy" recommendation.

The market's sensitivity to the forward guidance was evident in recent trading. Newmont's shares closed at €103.90 on Friday, marking a daily decline of 2.53%, after trading near their 52-week high.

Investors now face a clear calendar: the dividend record date of March 3, 2026, followed by the payment on March 26, 2026. Concurrently, the market will closely monitor Newmont's ability to navigate the cost pressures of 2026 and the evolution of the Nevada joint venture dispute.