Nel ASA Shares Test Key Support Levels Amid Strategic Pivot

Nel ASA NO0010081235

The equity of Norwegian hydrogen specialist Nel ASA continues to face significant downward pressure, with its price oscillating just above its lowest point in a year. Market participants are closely monitoring technical indicators while digesting the strategic roadmap laid out in December. The core question for investors is whether the company's newly announced electrolyzer platform can be commercialized swiftly enough to positively impact revenue and earnings.

From a fundamental perspective, the investment thesis is currently dominated by a major strategic decision announced in mid-December. Nel ASA has given the final investment go-ahead to industrialize its Next-Generation Pressurized Alkaline platform at its Herøya facility, targeting a capacity of 1 GW.

This strategic shift is fundamentally aimed at drastically reducing the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH). Achieving lower long-term average production costs for hydrogen forms the central investment narrative for 2026. However, the present share price reflects palpable market skepticism. Commercial rollout of the new platform is not anticipated until the first half of 2026, with a ramp-up in deliveries extending into 2027. This gap between the capital commitment and a tangible contribution to the top and bottom lines is weighing on the stock's performance.

Trading Snapshot and Key Metrics

In today's session, the stock is trading within a narrow band near the lows of the past twelve months. The intermediate-term trend remains bearish.

A summary of the current figures:

• Current Price: Approximately 2.23 NOK
• Intraday Movement: Around -0.18% (fluctuating)
• 52-Week Range: 1.95 NOK – 3.61 NOK
• Market Capitalization: Roughly 4.1 billion NOK

The substantial distance from the 52-week high underscores the persistent weakness observed over the medium term.

Technical Analysis and Price Levels

The chart presents a challenging picture. The shares are trading below key moving averages, signaling sustained selling interest.

In the near term, the following levels are crucial:

• Primary Support: Zone around 2.20 NOK
• Secondary Support: The 52-week low at 1.95 NOK
• Immediate Resistance: The 2.30–2.40 NOK band

A sustained break below 2.20 NOK would pave the way for a test of the 1.95 NOK level. Any upward moves are likely to encounter selling pressure in the 2.30–2.40 NOK range.

Notably, buying interest has been subdued in the still-young 2026 trading year. The modest trading volume indicates hesitation, particularly among institutional investors. Volatility has decreased compared to prior months, resulting in a tight sideways consolidation near the lows.

Near-Term Outlook and Market Sentiment

With no fresh corporate announcements today, the stock appears to be searching for direction near its support base. Its trajectory is largely being shaped by the broader sentiment in the renewable energy sector and short-term technical flows.

Key signals to watch will emerge from the interplay between price and volume:

• A significant increase in trading volume without a corresponding price recovery would confirm the prevailing downtrend.
• A closing price above 2.25 NOK could provide an initial hint of potential short-term stabilization within the current narrow range.

The framework for the coming weeks is thus clearly defined:

• Trend: Bearish to neutral consolidation near support
• Critical Support Levels: 2.20 NOK and 1.95 NOK
• Key Resistance: 2.40 NOK
• Market Mood: Cautious, with focus shifting to upcoming Q4 results and progress updates on the Next-Generation platform, which are expected to be pivotal for the stock's direction in 2026.