Nel ASA Shares Struggle for Momentum as Key 2026 Milestones Loom

Nel ASA NO0010081235

The shares of Norwegian hydrogen technology company Nel ASA continue to face headwinds as 2025 draws to a close. Despite several significant strategic developments, the stock's performance has notably lagged the broader market and remains well below its yearly peak. Market observers are now looking to 2026, questioning whether the launch of a new electrolyzer platform and recent contract wins can finally provide the anticipated catalyst for growth.

Nel's equity has been under consistent selling pressure. Trading on the Oslo exchange at approximately 2.30 NOK, the stock has declined roughly 14% since the start of the year, significantly underperforming Norway's benchmark OBX Index.

• Recent Trading Data: The share price closed at 2.24 NOK on December 29, marking a 1.93% drop for the day. In contrast, the OBX Index rose 0.42% to reach a one-month high. A slight recovery followed on December 30, with shares closing at 2.326 NOK, a gain of 0.95%.
• Annual Range: Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has traded between 1.95 NOK and 3.61 NOK. Its current price sits substantially below that annual high.
• Company Metrics: Nel's market capitalization stands at about 4.1 billion NOK, with roughly 1.84 billion shares outstanding.

The minor uptick at the month's end does little to alter the prevailing downward trend evident in the share price chart.

Strategic Focus: The Next-Generation Electrolyzer

A central element of Nel's forward strategy is its Next Generation Pressurized Alkaline (NGP) platform. On December 12, the company's board made the final investment decision to industrialize this technology at its Herøya facility in Norway. This move, culminating a seven-year development program, authorizes the establishment of up to 1 GW of production capacity.

The project has secured a commitment of up to 135 million EUR from the EU Innovation Fund, contingent upon meeting specific milestones. An initial tranche exceeding 10 million EUR is expected. Nel's initial investment is estimated at around 300 million NOK, calculated before accounting for the grant funding.

• Commercial Launch Target: First half of 2026.
• Scalable Delivery Goal: From 2027 onward.
• Claimed Advantages: The company states the platform aims for market-leading system efficiency, lower capital expenditure (CAPEX), and improved energy efficiency.

Successful execution is viewed as a potential medium-term driver for improved cost structure and a stronger competitive position.

Quarterly Results: Mixed Signals

The third-quarter 2025 report, released on October 29, presented a contrasting picture of the company's operational health.

• Revenue from contracts fell to 303 million NOK, down from 366 million NOK in Q3 2024.
• Total revenue and other income also decreased to 349 million NOK from 391 million NOK a year prior.
• However, the EBITDA loss narrowed considerably to -37 million NOK, compared to -90 million NOK in the same quarter last year.
• The order backlog was reported at 984 million NOK, with liquidity strong at 1.76 billion NOK.

These figures suggest that while top-line growth has slowed, cost-reduction initiatives are taking effect, reducing the company's operational losses.

Recent Contracts Build Project Pipeline

Although order intake was soft in Q3, Nel has announced several substantial contracts in subsequent months, adding depth to its project pipeline:

• A November 2025 agreement to serve as technology provider for GreenH hydrogen projects in Kristiansund and Slagentangen.
• Another November 2025 award for PEM electrolyzers for the HyFuel and Kaupanes projects, valued at over 50 million USD.
• A third contract in October 2025 from H2 Energy for a containerized PEM solution.

These awards bolster the company's portfolio in both PEM and Alkaline technologies and could form a broader foundation for future revenue if executed according to plan.

Strategic Partnership with SAMSUNG E&A

A significant corporate development occurred in March 2025 with the formation of a strategic cooperation agreement with SAMSUNG Engineering & Construction (SAMSUNG E&A). Following a capital raise, the South Korean industrial group became Nel's largest shareholder. This partnership is expected to provide enhanced financial stability and potentially unlock access to major international engineering and construction projects.

Cautious Analyst Sentiment

The average analyst price target for Nel shares is approximately 2.28 NOK, aligning closely with the current trading level. The dispersion of analyst views is wide, with targets ranging from 1.20 NOK to 4.20 NOK, mirroring the stock's own 52-week volatility. This reflects the divergent short-term assessments of the hydrogen sector's prospects.

The critical test in 2026 will be Nel's ability to successfully ramp up production of its new alkaline platform and convert it into profitable sales. The company's capacity to transition from development to scalable manufacturing, coupled with the financial impact of its recent large orders, will likely determine if the stock can break free from its established downtrend.