Nel ASA Shares Find Footing After Prolonged Decline

Nel ASA NO0010081235

Following an extended period of downward pressure, shares of Norwegian hydrogen technology company Nel ASA are showing tentative signs of stabilization. Trading on the Oslo exchange at approximately 2.29 Norwegian kroner (around €0.19), the stock's recent price action indicates a potential shift in near-term momentum. This technical development unfolds against a fundamental backdrop characterized by significant strategic investment and concurrently declining revenues.

The company's operational reality presents a contrast. On December 12, 2025, Nel ASA's board made the Final Investment Decision (FID) to expand production capacity at its Herøya facility in Norway. This cornerstone project, supported by the EU Innovation Fund, aims to industrialize a next-generation pressurized alkaline electrolyzer platform developed over seven years. The goal is to establish a new manufacturing line with a target capacity of up to 1 GW, driving higher efficiency and lower levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH).

However, this long-term strategic move has yet to translate into sustained positive sentiment for the equity. Investor focus remains sharply on current financial performance. The third-quarter 2025 report revealed a year-on-year revenue decline of roughly 17%, to 303 million NOK. While the loss per share showed a slight improvement to -0.05 NOK, achieving profitability remains a central concern, particularly for institutional investors.

The market's cautious stance is largely attributed to the uncertainty surrounding when this expanded capacity will generate measurable order intake and sales. The absence of a wave of major contracts following the FID announcement has contributed to the share price languishing at depressed levels.

Key Fundamental Data:
* Strategic Milestone: FID for 1 GW pressurized alkaline electrolyzer capacity.
* Q3 2025 Revenue: 303 million NOK (a 17% decrease year-over-year).
* Q3 2025 Loss Per Share: -0.05 NOK.
* Next Reporting Date: Q4 2025 results, scheduled for March 4, 2026.

Technical Indicators Hint at a Potential Shift

From a chart perspective, the equity appears to be consolidating. A technical buy signal (CCI Long) was recorded on Wednesday, occurring as the price holds above the psychologically significant 2.00 NOK support level. This zone now acts as a primary floor for the stock.

Despite positive news late last year, the share price has been contained within a narrow range, lacking sustained upward momentum. Key technical levels are now in focus.

• Current Trading Level: ~2.29 NOK
• Major Support: ~2.00 NOK
• Initial Resistance: ~2.37 NOK

A confirmed and sustained breakout above the 2.37 NOK threshold would signal a more robust recovery phase. Conversely, a slide below the 2.20 NOK area could reopen a test of the stock's 52-week lows.

Near-Term Trajectory Hinges on Catalysts

The immediate path for Nel ASA's share price likely depends on two factors. Technically, the question is whether the recent buy signal can attract sufficient trading volume to challenge and overcome the 2.37 NOK resistance. Fundamentally, all eyes are turning to the Q4 report due in early March. Market participants will scrutinize this release for evidence that the company's industrialization strategy is beginning to feed into a growing order backlog for its new pressurized alkaline platform.

Should concrete large-scale orders for this technology remain elusive in the coming weeks, the stock will likely continue to trade within its current consolidation range, bounded by the established support and resistance levels.