Nel ASA Braces for Revenue Test Amid Tariff and Technology Shifts

Nel's strategic alliance with Samsung faces a shareholder vote amid US tariffs and pressure to convert a surging order backlog into revenue, with Q1 results as the next critical test.

The coming fortnight presents a critical juncture for Norwegian hydrogen specialist Nel ASA. As shareholders prepare for a digital annual meeting, the company grapples with the dual challenge of fresh US import tariffs and the pressing need to convert a surging order backlog into tangible revenue. This period will test both its strategic partnerships and its operational execution.

Investor attention on April 10 is fixed on a key boardroom vote. Shareholders will decide on extending the supervisory board mandate of Gyuyeon Kang, who represents Samsung E&A. The South Korean industrial giant is Nel’s largest institutional investor with a 9.1% stake, following a $33 million investment in March 2025 that established Nel as its preferred global hydrogen partner. The vote is seen as a barometer for the health of this strategic alliance.

This corporate decision unfolds against a backdrop of significant operational headwinds. The Biden administration's new 20% tariff on European electrolysers entering the US market imposes direct cost pressure. For Nel, which operates production facilities in both Norway and the United States, the measure threatens to squeeze margins on imported components, complicating the profitability of green hydrogen production.

Financially, the company is emerging from a transformative but costly quarter. Its Q4 2025 results revealed a stark contrast: revenue fell 20% to NOK 330 million, accompanied by a net loss of NOK 870 million. This loss was heavily influenced by a NOK 799 million write-down on older production assets at Herøya, marking a deliberate shift in technology strategy. Offsetting this, order intake skyrocketed by 364% to NOK 686 million, driven primarily by a major contract for its PEM division.

The strategic response to high costs centers on a next-generation pressure alkaline electrolyser platform, slated for launch in the first half of 2026. Management has made the final investment decision for up to 1 GW of production capacity at Herøya. The new technology promises to reduce space requirements by 80% and cut investment costs by as much as 60%, a project bolstered by EU Innovation Fund support of up to €135 million.

Despite this technological push and a solid liquidity position of NOK 1.6 billion, market analysts remain cautious. The central concern is the unproven conversion of the robust order book into actual sales. This skepticism is reflected in recent analyst actions. Berenberg maintained a 'Hold' rating but cut its price target from NOK 2.60 to NOK 2.30, citing unproven market acceptance for the new platform. Similarly, Citigroup reduced its target from NOK 2.70 to NOK 2.40.

The stock, trading at €0.19, has declined nearly 8% year-to-date and is currently hovering around its 50-day moving average. The immediate future holds the key data point investors are awaiting. On April 22, 2026, Nel will release its first-quarter results, providing the first concrete evidence of whether last year's order momentum is finally translating into the revenue growth the market demands.