Nebius Stock Bolstered by $46 Billion Backlog

Nebius shares surge as investors focus on $46B+ backlog from Meta and Microsoft deals, driving long-term revenue targets to over $3B despite near-term losses.

A staggering order backlog exceeding $46 billion provides a formidable foundation for Nebius. This substantial financial cushion propels the company into April, fueled by massive, long-term infrastructure agreements with industry titans Meta and Microsoft. The sheer scale of these contracts overshadows the company's current market capitalization and has prompted investors to largely overlook a recent earnings shortfall.

Investor Focus Shifts to Long-Term Prospects

The market's reaction to this news has been decisively positive. Shares surged nearly seven percent yesterday to close at $108.82. Investors appear to be deliberately setting aside the fact that the most recent quarterly net loss per share came in at $0.68, higher than the anticipated $0.54. The focus is firmly fixed on the future revenue stream, leading several analysts to revise their price targets upward into a range of $160 to $200.

The core of this investor optimism lies in multi-year deals that grant Nebius significant visibility. The agreement with Meta alone is valued at up to $27 billion. Starting in early 2027, Nebius is committed to providing fixed capacity worth $12 billion, supplemented by flexible call options. In a parallel move, the company secured an expanded collaboration with Microsoft, a contract worth approximately $19.4 billion. This concentrated demand from leading players for AI infrastructure is catapulting revenue projections to a new level. Management now targets annual revenue between $3.0 and $3.4 billion for the 2026 fiscal year—a dramatic leap from the $530 million in revenues posted for 2025.

Aggressive Expansion Demands Heavy Investment

Fulfilling these monumental commitments requires equally massive capital expenditure. Nebius has outlined planned investment outlays of $16 to $20 billion for 2026. A cornerstone of this expansion is a new 310-megawatt AI factory in Lappeenranta, Finland. The facility is specifically designed for the latest NVIDIA architectures and benefits from a strategic alliance between the two firms, ensuring Nebius preferential access to coveted GPU clusters.

However, this transition into what the company terms the "gigawatt era" carries substantial execution risks. To achieve its goal of up to one gigawatt of active data center capacity by the end of December 2026, Nebius must guarantee not only a smooth hardware supply chain. Given the enormous construction costs, the company will also likely need to pursue additional large-scale capital raises to finance this breakneck growth trajectory.