Nebius Secures Key US Approval for Major AI Data Center Project

Nebius secures key US approval for a 1.2GW AI data center campus in Missouri, sparking a brief stock rally followed by volatility as the firm reports explosive revenue growth.

The cloud infrastructure provider Nebius has cleared a significant regulatory hurdle in the United States, receiving approval from local authorities in Missouri for a major industrial incentive plan. This greenlights the company's largest infrastructure project in the country to date—a new artificial intelligence data center campus. While the news initially fueled positive market sentiment, the subsequent price volatility underscores the stock's continued susceptibility to sharp swings.

Project Independence: A Multi-Phase Hyperscale Campus

On March 4, the city council of Independence, Missouri, approved a "Chapter 100" incentive plan for Nebius's proposed AI campus. Dubbed "Project Independence," the initiative will be developed as a multi-phase hyperscale facility spanning approximately 400 acres near Kansas City. The project is designed to eventually reach a capacity of up to 1.2 gigawatts.

The initial construction phase is described as a multi-billion dollar investment. It is expected to create roughly 1,200 jobs during the build-out and approximately 130 permanent high-tech positions. Power delivery for the site is scheduled to commence in the second half of 2026. Project plans also highlight a closed-loop cooling system with low water consumption, noise reduction measures, and commitments to local hiring.

Market Response: A Short-Lived Rally

Following the approval announcement, Nebius shares surged by 12% on Wednesday, climbing to $97 amid broader gains in the "Neocloud" sector. This marked a substantial recovery from the week's low of $83.

However, the rally proved fleeting. According to a report from Simply Wall St. published approximately two days after the decision, the stock had retreated and was trading 8.8% below its pre-announcement level following the approval. In subsequent trading, the share price fluctuated between $88.80 and $96.50, settling at $89.19. On an annual basis, the trading range has been exceptionally wide, from $18.31 to $141.10.

Financial Performance and Ambitious Growth Targets

For the full year 2025, Nebius reported unaudited revenue of $529.8 million, representing staggering growth of 479% year-over-year. Fourth-quarter revenue alone reached $227.7 million, a 547% increase. While the company's path to consistent profitability remains unstable, it reduced its losses on an EBITDA basis. The adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was -$64.9 million, an improvement from -$226.3 million in 2024. Net income from continuing operations was $29.0 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of -$352.0 million the prior year. Operating cash flow from continuing operations turned positive in 2025, reaching +$401.9 million.

From an operational standpoint, Nebius emphasized that it was "sold out" in both the third and fourth quarters of 2025 and is already sold out for the first quarter of 2026. Some capacity is being fully allocated even before it becomes operational. A key growth driver is a five-year contract with Microsoft valued at over $19 billion. An initial tranche was delivered as planned in November, with further deliveries expected throughout 2026, predominantly in the second half. Starting in 2027, Nebius anticipates receiving the full annual revenue contribution from the Microsoft agreement.

Looking ahead to 2026, the company has provided revenue guidance of $3.0 to $3.4 billion, with the majority of capacity deliveries also slated for the latter half of the year. Management has reaffirmed its target to achieve an annualized run rate (ARR) of $7 to $9 billion by the end of 2026. Concurrently, the number of data center locations is projected to increase from 7 in 2025 to 16 by year-end, with active capacity expected to reach between 800 megawatts and 1 gigawatt.

The financial scale of these plans is immense. For the current year, Nebius has budgeted capital investments of $16 to $20 billion. Initial funding is expected to come from operational cash flows and proceeds from long-term contracts. The company also anticipates establishing a capital structure in 2026 that will include external financing. As of the end of 2025, Nebius held $3.7 billion in liquid assets and reports no group-level debt.

The regulatory approval in Missouri removes a key uncertainty factor for the US expansion. The focal point for Nebius's story in 2026 will now be whether the company can successfully bring the announced capacity online in the second half of the year and convert its planned deliveries into concrete revenue.