Nebius Group Stock Gains Momentum Amidst Aggressive Expansion Plans

Nebius shares gain despite a Q4 earnings miss, fueled by explosive 547% revenue growth, a $20B+ order backlog, and a massive 2026 infrastructure plan.

Shares of Nebius Group continued their upward trajectory on Tuesday, advancing approximately 2% to close at $102.58. While the company's latest quarterly results fell short of expectations, investors are focusing on a staggering revenue surge and the firm's capacity to execute on a multi-billion dollar infrastructure roadmap for 2026.

Robust Growth Offsets Quarterly Miss

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Nebius reported revenue of $227.7 million. Although this figure missed analyst estimates of $246 million, the market responded positively to a year-over-year growth rate of 547%. The cloud computing segment was a particular standout, exploding by 830%.

A critical milestone was reached as the company posted its first positive adjusted EBITDA for the quarter. Profitability within the core cloud business improved significantly, with margins expanding to 24% from 19% in the prior quarter. This improved operational efficiency helped balance a higher-than-anticipated loss per share, which came in at $0.69 against expectations of $0.42.

Sector Volatility and a Massive Capital Plan

The stock recently experienced brief pressure due to sector-wide concerns. On February 20, rumors regarding funding challenges at competitor CoreWeave created temporary unease, impacting Nebius shares. The stock recovered swiftly once those concerns proved unfounded. However, sensitivity remains high because Nebius has outlined an enormous capital expenditure plan of $16 to $20 billion for 2026. According to company statements, approximately 60% of this required funding is currently secured.

A Substantial Backlog Fuels Confidence

The company's growth strategy is underpinned by an exceptionally strong order book, which exceeds $20 billion. This backlog is supported by major, long-term partnerships with industry giants:

• A multi-year agreement with Microsoft valued at up to $19.4 billion.
• A separate deal with Meta Platforms worth approximately $3 billion.

Management has provided full-year 2026 revenue guidance in the range of $3 to $3.4 billion. To meet this soaring demand, Nebius plans a dramatic expansion of its available computing capacity. The company aims to increase its power capacity from 170 megawatts at the end of 2025 to as much as 1 gigawatt by the close of 2026.

Wall Street Maintains a Bullish Stance

Analyst sentiment remains largely optimistic. The consensus price target sits around $143, suggesting considerable upside potential from current levels. Recent analyst actions include firms like Compass Point and BWS Financial reaffirming their "Buy" recommendations, with price targets ranging from $130 to $150.

The investment narrative now hinges entirely on execution. With capacity sold out and contract durations extending, demand is not in question. The fundamental valuation throughout the year will likely strengthen if the company can successfully bring its planned data centers online according to schedule and secure the remaining financing needed for its infrastructure build-out.