MicroStrategy Faces Potential Removal from Major Global Index

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While MicroStrategy has secured its position in the Nasdaq 100 for now, a far more significant threat looms on the horizon. The company’s future in a crucial global benchmark, the MSCI index, is under formal review—a decision with the potential to trigger billions in forced selling.

The most substantial overhang for MicroStrategy shares stems from an ongoing evaluation by index provider MSCI. The firm is examining whether companies holding substantial cryptocurrency treasuries should still be classified as operating businesses or if they have effectively become investment vehicles.

This scrutiny directly targets MicroStrategy’s fundamental identity. With over 400,000 Bitcoin now held on its balance sheet, its core enterprise software operations have been relegated to a secondary concern. Should MSCI decide to exclude the company in its February 2026 announcement, a wave of global index-tracking funds would be compelled to divest their holdings. Market experts estimate this could unleash selling pressure measured in the billions of dollars.

This profound uncertainty is currently capping any significant upward momentum for the stock. Investors are largely treating the equity as a highly volatile Bitcoin proxy that carries additional regulatory risk—an unattractive combination during periods of market turbulence.

Nasdaq Retention Fails to Impress Markets

The recent reconstitution of the Nasdaq 100 saw MicroStrategy retain its spot, unlike six other firms including Biogen and Lululemon Athletica that were removed. For passive funds tied to the index, this means continued ownership is required.

However, the market reaction has been decidedly negative. The stock declined more than 8% at one point during Monday’s session, falling to approximately $162. Year-to-date, the share price has collapsed by 43%, a stark contrast to the firm’s aggressive digital asset acquisition strategy.

This sustained pressure is attributed to two primary factors. First, Bitcoin’s volatility around the $90,000 level directly impacts MicroStrategy’s net asset value. Second, from a technical analysis perspective, the stock has breached a key support level at $165. Traders are now watching the $155 zone as the next critical threshold.

Saylor Signals Further Bitcoin Accumulation

Amid the share price weakness, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor communicated via his characteristic "Green Dots" message. Historically, this signal precedes the purchase of additional Bitcoin. Significant liquidity clusters are currently forming around the $90,000 price region, suggesting the company may be preparing for another acquisition.

For long-term shareholders, this reaffirms the company’s committed strategy. Short-term traders, however, perceive added risk: the company continues to increase its debt load in an environment of sustained high interest rates, placing its cash management practices under heightened scrutiny.

Until the MSCI verdict arrives in early 2026, MicroStrategy’s shares are likely to remain trapped within this tense dichotomy between corporate strategy and index eligibility.