Market Experts Bullish on Kaspi.kz Despite Share Price Weakness

Kaspi.kz US48581R2058

Kaspi.kz, the Kazakh fintech and e-commerce leader, presents a compelling dichotomy for investors. While its underlying business performance continues to show impressive strength, its stock has faced significant pressure this year. This growing divergence between robust fundamentals and share price performance is drawing close scrutiny from the market.

The prevailing sentiment among financial analysts covering Kaspi.kz is notably optimistic. Out of the six analysts providing ratings, five maintain a "buy" recommendation, with the remaining one advising investors to hold. Their collective assessment yields an average price target of approximately $105.29 per share. This figure suggests a potential upside of more than 35% from current trading levels, reflecting a strong conviction in the company's long-term prospects.

Management is reinforcing this confidence through tangible action. Since November 2025, a $100 million share repurchase program has been underway. Furthermore, the company offers an attractive dividend, which recently provided a yield of around 8.5%.

Operational Performance Remains Robust

Financial results for the first nine months of 2025 underscore the company's operational health. In the third quarter, total revenue expanded by 20% year-over-year. The fintech division was a particular standout, recording a robust 24% increase in revenue, while the payments segment saw its transaction volume grow by 18%.

However, the marketplace business encountered a temporary hurdle. A short-term supply constraint for smartphones, specifically iPhones, resulted in an 8% decline in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV). Company leadership has characterized this as a transient issue from which it is already recovering.

Future Trajectory Hinges on Strategic Integration

Looking ahead, a major focal point is the planned acquisition of Rabobank A.Ş., slated for completion by mid-2026. The successful integration of this acquisition will be a critical determinant of future performance. Combined with the need for sustained growth momentum in Kaspi.kz's core segments, this integration will likely dictate whether the stock can reverse its downward trend that has persisted since the start of the year. Upcoming quarterly reports will be closely watched for confirmation that the marketplace's supply challenges have indeed been resolved.