Kaspi.kz Shares Face Headwinds as Strategic Acquisition is Pushed Back

Kaspi.kz US48581R2058

Despite continuing to post robust operational results, the international growth strategy of Kazakh fintech leader Kaspi.kz has hit a snag. Market sentiment has turned more cautious following the announcement of a significant delay to a key overseas acquisition, posing a challenge for the company to maintain investor confidence in its long-term expansion narrative beyond its domestic market.

The shift in market outlook is primarily a reaction to a recalibrated schedule for geographic diversification. A cornerstone of Kaspi.kz's growth plan, the proposed acquisition of Rabobank Turkey, has been postponed until mid-2026. This deferral has substantially tempered expectations for near-term growth catalysts from international mergers and acquisitions.

Investment firm Susquehanna has responded to these developments by downgrading its rating on the stock from "Positive" to "Neutral." More strikingly, the firm slashed its price target from $130 to $87. While this revised target still implies some potential upside from current trading levels, the scale of the cut signals a marked increase in caution among market experts.

Strong Domestic Performance Provides a Counterbalance

Operationally, the company's core business remains in solid health. For the third quarter of 2025, Kaspi.kz reported total revenue of 1.1 trillion Tenge. The firm also confirmed net profit growth for the first nine months of the previous year. The central question now is whether this resilient domestic performance can sufficiently bridge the waiting period for new foreign market entry.

Market observers are viewing the situation with increased skepticism, as the anticipated international growth drivers are now absent for the foreseeable future. The postponement of the Turkey expansion means investors cannot expect fresh momentum from this strategic move until the summer of 2026. Until then, the equity's performance will largely hinge on the company's ability to further monetize its dominant position within Kazakhstan.

Share Price Trends Reflect Growing Concerns

The market's reassessment is visibly impacting the stock. Currently trading at €63.40, the shares are approximately 40% below their 52-week high of €107.00. This places the equity perilously close to its annual low of €61.80. The longer-term trend, illustrated by a 200-day moving average of €71.18, continues to point downward.

This price action underscores the heightened uncertainty. With the delay pushing international catalysts further out, the investment thesis for Kaspi.kz now relies more heavily on the sustained execution and profitability of its established Kazakh operations to support valuation in the interim period.