IREN Shares Stage a Rebound Following Steep Sell-Off

IREN shares rebound amid analyst debate over its $6B funding plan and shift from Bitcoin mining to AI cloud services, with a $79.31 average price target.

The stock of IREN (IREN) posted a significant recovery on Friday, marking a notable reversal after a precipitous decline. Over a span of just five trading sessions, the share price had plummeted approximately 20%. This sharp downturn was fueled by a confluence of investor concerns, including financing risks for major projects, new U.S. tariffs on AI chips, and a critical analyst assessment of the company's strategic pivot.

A Divided Analyst Landscape

The market sentiment surrounding IREN is currently split. The consensus view among thirteen covering analysts reveals a predominantly bullish stance: eleven advocate buying the shares, two suggest holding, and one recommends selling. The average price target stands at $79.31, which is more than double the recent trading level of around €30.

This division was highlighted recently when Freedom Capital initiated coverage with a "Hold" rating and a $36 price target. The firm's core critique centers on IREN's ongoing transformation from Bitcoin mining infrastructure to AI cloud capacity. Freedom Capital warned that this transition could take longer than anticipated and carries significant execution risk. Evidence of this challenge was seen in the company's second fiscal quarter (ended December 31), where the shift from specialized ASIC machines to GPU hardware contributed to larger-than-expected losses.

Catalysts for the Recent Pressure

Beyond the transition risks, a specific announcement rattled investor confidence. IREN's plan to raise up to $6 billion through an at-the-market (ATM) equity offering was met with skepticism. Co-CEO Daniel Roberts defended the strategy, characterizing it as an optional facility intended to provide the company with flexible and balanced capital access.

Despite the recent pressure, other analysts remain steadfastly optimistic. Bernstein reaffirmed its "Outperform" rating, praising IREN's structured approach to building a direct AI cloud. Their positive outlook highlights the company's mix of long-term contracts and on-demand capacity, coupled with diversified funding sources. A key pillar of their thesis is IREN's engagement with Microsoft. Bernstein analysts note that if IREN meets agreed delivery timelines, its 4.5-gigawatt portfolio—of which 90% remains uncontracted—holds substantial scaling potential.

Upcoming Milestones and Financial Tests

IREN's operational roadmap remains ambitious. The company is progressing toward key milestones for its large-scale data center projects. The Sweetwater 1 facility, with 1,400 megawatts of capacity, is targeting substation energization for April 2026. This will be followed by the 600-megawatt Sweetwater 2 site by the end of 2027. Collectively, these locations are slated for an expansion to two gigawatts.

In parallel, IREN has secured purchase agreements for over 50,000 Nvidia B300 GPUs. This procurement will grow its total fleet to 150,000 GPUs, which the company believes is sufficient to support an annualized AI cloud revenue run-rate exceeding $3.7 billion by the end of 2026.

The next concrete test for the company will be its quarterly earnings report scheduled for May 13, 2026. Market experts are currently forecasting a loss of $0.23 per share for that period. This report will bring into sharp focus the critical question of whether IREN's massive GPU expansion is beginning to translate into tangible financial results.