IREN Shares Rebound as Analysts Affirm Long-Term Strategy

IREN AU0000185993

Following a significant sell-off triggered by its latest earnings report, shares of IREN staged a notable recovery at the start of the trading week. The equity climbed approximately 8% on Monday. This upward move was fueled by public statements from several market analysts who reiterated their confidence in the company's strategic pivot, shifting its focus away from Bitcoin mining and toward high-performance computing (HPC) for artificial intelligence.

The recent period of instability for the stock was directly linked to the release of IREN's financial results for fiscal Q2 2026 last Thursday. The figures presented a mixed picture that fell short of market projections.

Key Financial Data:
- Q2 FY2026 Revenue: $184.7 million (below expectations of approximately $229 million)
- Net Income/Loss: A net loss of -$155.4 million, a reversal from the profit recorded in the same quarter a year prior.

Company management attributed the weaker performance to a capital-intensive transitional phase. As infrastructure is repurposed from cryptocurrency mining to AI cloud services, costs have risen ahead of the full revenue and margin contribution from new HPC contracts.

Analyst Community Backs the Long-Term Vision

Market experts were quick to contextualize the quarterly miss, emphasizing the longer-term trajectory.

• Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani reaffirmed his "Outperform" rating and $125 price target. He pointed to potential new contract signings on the horizon and advised investors to focus on the pipeline of hyperscaler demand rather than near-term operational friction. In his view, IREN is well-positioned to monetize its energy assets as the build-out of AI infrastructure accelerates.
• Roth Capital analyst Darren Aftahi maintained a "Buy" recommendation with a $94 price target. A central theme of his analysis was that concerns over capital expenditure (CapEx) have been partially alleviated by improved financing visibility. According to Roth, IREN has secured funding for roughly 95% of the GPU hardware required for its major customer agreements, substantially reducing near-term execution risk for its expansion plans.

Operational Milestones and Future Catalysts

Despite the quarterly setback, the investment thesis for IREN remains closely tied to two major operational developments.

1. The Microsoft Partnership: A cornerstone agreement involves providing 200 MW of capacity at its Childress, Texas site to Microsoft. The contract carries a stated value of $9.7 billion. The market anticipates more stable and higher-margin earnings once this capacity is fully operational.
2. The Sweetwater Campus: The company is concurrently advancing the development of its Sweetwater campus in Texas. This project, with a total capacity of 1.4 gigawatts, is considered central to long-term growth. The initial phases are scheduled for energization, with the first deployments expected to begin in April 2026.

Looking ahead, investor attention will likely focus on three key areas: the ramp-up of AI-driven revenue (including annual recurring revenue targets), the timely achievement of Sweetwater milestones starting next April, and any announcements regarding new customer deals, potentially aligning with the "new agreements" hinted at by Bernstein's analysis.

@ boerse-global.de | AU0000185993 IREN