Investor Confidence Wavers as Nel ASA Faces Revenue Conversion Challenges

Analysts cut price targets as Nel's robust order intake fails to translate into revenue growth. Key tests include the AGM and Q1 results amid a major Samsung partnership.

Ahead of its upcoming annual general meeting, hydrogen technology firm Nel ASA is encountering heightened scrutiny from the analyst community. The core concern centers on a significant and growing disconnect: while the company's order books are robust, the pace at which these contracts translate into actual revenue is causing unease. This apprehension has prompted several investment banks to revise their outlooks downward.

The company's shares, currently trading at 0.19 euros, are hovering precisely at the 50-day moving average, reflecting this market caution.

Analyst Sentiment Cools Amid Execution Questions

Recent analyst actions underscore the shifting perspective. Berenberg's James Carmichael recently maintained a 'hold' rating but reduced his price target from 2.60 to 2.30 Norwegian Kroner. Citigroup followed suit, cutting its target to 2.40 Kroner. The primary reasons cited for this increased skepticism include the unpredictable timeline for revenue realization from the order backlog and unproven market readiness for Nel's new platform generation.

Financially, Nel remains on solid ground with liquidity of approximately 1.6 billion Kroner. The challenge is operational. Fourth-quarter 2025 figures starkly highlight the contrast: customer revenues contracted by 20% year-over-year to 330 million Kroner, even as order intake surged by 364%.

By year-end, the order backlog had ballooned to over 1.3 billion Kroner. The market is now awaiting concrete evidence that this volume of business can be executed efficiently and converted into sales. The planned launch of a new, more efficient electrolyzer platform in the first half of 2026—a project backed by millions in EU funding—has so far failed to fully assuage these fundamental concerns.

Strategic Partnership and Forthcoming Tests

Attention now turns to the digital annual general meeting scheduled for Friday, April 10. A key point of interest is the role of Nel's major institutional backer, Samsung E&A. The South Korean industrial group acquired a 9.1% stake in March 2025, naming Nel as its preferred global hydrogen partner.

The agenda includes the re-election of Samsung executive Gyuyeon Kang to Nel's board of directors. Market observers view this move as a critical indicator of the stability and long-term commitment within this strategic alliance.

A significant fundamental test follows shortly thereafter. On April 22, Nel ASA is set to release its first-quarter results. This report will provide crucial details on whether the strong order momentum from the second half of 2025 is beginning to yield measurable revenue growth.