Intuit Shares Under Pressure Amid Cautious Guidance

Intuit's Q2 earnings beat estimates, but a cautious Q3 revenue outlook citing Mailchimp challenges drove a 25% stock drop. The firm boosts AI investment and dividend.

Despite posting quarterly results that surpassed Wall Street's expectations, Intuit's stock has faced significant headwinds. Investor sentiment turned cautious as the financial software leader issued a near-term revenue forecast that suggests a potential deceleration in its growth trajectory.

Robust Earnings Overshadowed by Forward Outlook

For its fiscal second quarter of 2026, Intuit reported a 17 percent year-over-year revenue increase to $4.65 billion. The company also exceeded analyst consensus with its non-GAAP earnings per share, which came in at $4.15. A particularly strong performance was noted in its GAAP operating income, which surged 44 percent to reach $855 million.

However, the market's focus swiftly shifted from these solid historical figures to the company's projection for the current third quarter. Management anticipates revenue growth of approximately 10 percent for the period, a rate that analysts interpret as a notable slowdown from recent quarters. This tempered outlook is largely attributed to challenges within its Mailchimp business unit. Efforts to attract new small business customers and reduce churn rates are progressing more slowly than initially anticipated. Consequently, a return to double-digit growth for this segment is now forecasted for after the 2026 fiscal year.

Strategic Bets on AI and Shareholder Returns

In a strategic move to bolster long-term growth, Intuit is making substantial investments in artificial intelligence. A recently announced partnership with AI specialist Anthropic aims to embed specialized AI agents into its software platforms to automate complex financial workflows. This initiative was complemented this month by the launch of an AI-powered version of its Enterprise Suite tailored for the construction industry. The central question for investors is whether this technological push can offset the current softness in its marketing solutions division.

Demonstrating confidence in its financial health, Intuit's board authorized a 15 percent increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.20 per share. Furthermore, the company aggressively repurchased $961 million worth of its own stock during the second quarter alone. This shareholder return is set against a backdrop of a significant stock price decline, with shares having lost over 25 percent of their value in the past 30 days.

The increased dividend is scheduled for distribution to shareholders on April 17, 2026. For the full 2026 fiscal year, the company reaffirmed its prior guidance, maintaining its total revenue expectation in the range of $20.99 billion to $21.19 billion.

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