Intel Shares Gain Momentum Ahead of Earnings with Dual Analyst Upgrades

Intel US4581401001

Intel finds itself in the spotlight on the eve of its critical quarterly earnings report, buoyed by a wave of positive analyst sentiment. The chipmaker's stock is testing the psychologically significant $50 level, supported by two separate rating upgrades and a key strategic hire to bolster its graphics business.

In a parallel development underscoring its strategic ambitions, Intel has recruited Eric Demers from Qualcomm. Demers will join as Senior Vice President, taking charge of the company's GPU and AI PC divisions. This move signals a serious commitment to competing in the graphics card market and in the emerging sector of computers with integrated artificial intelligence capabilities.

The market's reaction has been favorable. After hitting a 52-week low of $17.67 in April 2025, Intel's shares are now trading near a two-year high, approaching $50. The equity has recorded a gain of more than 26% since the start of the year.

Analysts Revise Outlooks Upward

Two prominent research firms have recently revised their positions on Intel. On Wednesday, HSBC Global Research shifted its rating from "Moderate Sell" to "Hold." Analyst Frank Lee cited improved prospects in the server CPU segment as the rationale. The bank now forecasts growth in server processor shipments of 15% to 20% for 2026, a figure that substantially exceeds the market consensus estimate of 4% to 6%.

This optimism is driven by rising demand for "Agentic AI," or autonomous artificial intelligence applications. These systems require powerful central processing units (CPUs) in addition to standard AI accelerators, a trend that HSBC believes positions Intel more favorably than previously thought.

Earlier in the week, Seaport Research upgraded the stock to "Buy," attaching a Street-high price target of $65. Seaport's confidence stems from reported progress in Intel's 18A manufacturing technology, with yields said to already exceed 60%.

All Eyes on Thursday's Earnings and Guidance

The decisive moment arrives after the market closes on Thursday, January 22, with the release of Intel's Q4 financial results. Analysts are anticipating earnings per share of $0.08 on revenue of $13.38 billion, which would represent a year-over-year decline of approximately 6%. The options market is pricing in volatility of nearly 9% around the announcement.

The forward guidance will be paramount. This week is expected to mark the start of volume production for the 18A manufacturing technology. The subsequent "Panther Lake" processors are considered crucial for Intel's efforts to catch up with TSMC. Any commentary regarding potential major external customers—specifically addressing rumors concerning Apple from 2027 onward—could serve as a significant catalyst for the share price.

While the average analyst price target remains at $40.68, with a majority of experts maintaining a cautious stance, the two recent upgrades indicate a notable shift in sentiment. This newfound optimism, however, is contingent on Intel delivering convincing quarterly figures and a clear roadmap for its 18A technology tomorrow.