Institutional Investors Increase Stakes in Ambev Ahead of Earnings

Ambev US02319V1035

As Ambev prepares to release its full-year 2025 financial results, significant institutional buying activity is drawing attention to the beverage giant. With the report scheduled for February 12, major funds have been actively expanding their holdings, contributing to the stock reaching a new 52-week high of USD 2.64 this past Tuesday.

• Next Quarterly Report: February 12, 2026
• Q4 Earnings Per Share Forecast: USD 0.05
• Most Recent Dividend: USD 0.049 (paid January 9)
• 52-Week Trading Range: USD 1.80 – USD 2.64

Major Funds Amplify Holdings

Recent regulatory filings reveal substantial adjustments to institutional positions in Ambev this month. A notable move came from Capitalo Investimentos Ltda., which, according to a January 29 disclosure, boosted its stake by a remarkable 216.3%, adding over 1.2 million shares to its portfolio. This investment now ranks as the fund’s 25th largest holding.

This trend is echoed by other financial heavyweights. Millennium Management raised its position by 62.5%, and Goldman Sachs increased its holdings by 13.2%. Collectively, institutional investors and hedge funds now control an estimated 8.13% of the company’s outstanding shares.

Favorable Market Conditions Provide Support

The stock’s recent upward movement coincides with a broader recovery in the Brazilian equity market. The benchmark Ibovespa index climbed 1.5% on January 28, buoyed by signals from both the Brazilian and U.S. central banks indicating a period of stable benchmark interest rates.

Positive domestic economic data offered further tailwinds. The IPCA-15 inflation index slowed to 0.20% in January, reinforcing expectations for steady monetary policy. While financial and utility stocks led the market, Ambev benefited from the optimistic sentiment within the consumer staples sector, maintaining its positive technical momentum.

Capital Returns and Forthcoming Results

Income-focused investors received a special dividend payment of USD 0.049 per share on January 9. The company maintains a strategy of substantial capital returns to shareholders, evidenced by a payout ratio that recently stood at approximately 183%. A key question for the future is whether its brewing division will continue to benefit from currently declining input costs.

The upcoming February 12 report is anticipated to provide clarity. Market experts are forecasting fourth-quarter earnings of USD 0.05 per share. Investors will be keenly focused on whether net margins can recover following a slight revenue miss in the previous quarter, where the company reported USD 3.87 billion against expectations of USD 3.97 billion. Signs of further operational efficiency improvements will also be closely scrutinized.