Institutional Accumulation of XRP Defies Bearish Market Sentiment

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While a chill pervades the broader cryptocurrency market, a compelling divergence is emerging for XRP. Price action remains lethargic following a fourth-quarter correction, yet substantial capital continues flowing into US spot ETFs, and Ripple's regulatory infrastructure has achieved a significant milestone. This juxtaposition raises a critical question: why do weak prices coexist with strengthening fundamentals?

A pivotal structural development occurred in mid-December. On December 12, 2025, Ripple Labs received preliminary approval from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) for a National Trust Bank license. This authorization permits Ripple to operate within the US banking system, enabling it to offer custody and settlement services directly to institutional clients.

Market participants view this license as a crucial component for the ecosystem's long-term infrastructure maturity. It reduces regulatory uncertainty and establishes a clearer foundation for services involving XRP custody, settlement, and payment processing.

ETF Inflows Signal Strategic Institutional Buying

Contrasting with retail investor caution, institutional activity tells a different story. Since their launch in November 2025, US spot XRP ETFs have accumulated net inflows exceeding $1.14 billion, with assets under management now surpassing $1.25 billion.

Notably, these ETFs recorded daily net inflows ranging from $8 to $12 million in late December, even on days when Bitcoin ETFs saw notable outflows. Industry reports indicate that since the product launches, over 4 billion XRP have moved from the freely available market supply into ETF vehicles. Analysts interpret this as a clear signal that institutional investors are strategically using depressed price levels to build positions.

Price Weakness Amid Oversold Conditions

XRP is currently trading just above its annual low at approximately $1.86, significantly below its 52-week high of $3.04. The asset is trading roughly 11% below its 50-day moving average, and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just under 30, suggesting the market is oversold in the near term.

This fourth-quarter weakness aligns with the broader crypto market, which has been mired in "Extreme Fear" for two weeks according to the Fear & Greed Index (reading: 20). However, technical indicators like the 3-week Stochastic RSI, at levels seen at prior cycle lows, hint at diminishing selling pressure. Additional support originates from currency markets: a weaker Japanese Yen has revived carry trades, stabilizing the XRP/JPY pair and thereby providing support to XRP's global price.

On-Chain Data Reveals Shifting Participation

On-chain metrics clearly reflect retail investor hesitation. The number of active accounts on the XRP Ledger fell to 14,636 on December 25, well below levels seen during the hype-driven third quarter, indicating a pronounced cooling of speculative retail interest.

Conversely, core network utility remains robust. Ripple CTO David Schwartz recently highlighted the ledger's global liquidity depth of approximately $109 billion—a key factor for large On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) transactions that require minimal slippage. Settlement volume stays elevated but is increasingly driven by institutional ODL flows rather than standard retail transfers.

Product Roadmap: A Measured Approach to RLUSD

Regarding its stablecoin, RLUSD, Ripple is proceeding deliberately. Reports from December 26 confirm that Japan's SBI Group will conduct a test of its payment system using USDC in early 2026, not RLUSD. Industry analysts note this is not a rejection of Ripple but rather a timing issue; when SBI registered as a stablecoin operator in March 2025, RLUSD was not yet market-ready.

According to sources close to the involved parties, integrating RLUSD into SBI platforms remains part of the medium-term roadmap and is expected to follow the stablecoin's full market launch. For Ripple, this represents another potential lever to expand the linkage between stablecoin and ODL structures.

Market Sentiment and Near-Term Outlook

Overall market sentiment remains tense. The substantial options expiration on December 26, with a global notional volume of $7.1 trillion, was expected to induce additional short-term volatility as market participants re-hedged positions.

Despite weak price performance, industry figures point to the asset's resilience. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz emphasized that few assets could maintain a support zone around $1.80 so steadfastly after a quarterly decline of approximately 35%.

The critical technical and psychological hurdle remains the $2.00 mark. A sustained breakout above this level would significantly brighten the picture of the Q4 correction. Such a move could signal that the combined impact of the OCC bank license, robust ETF demand, and stable network utility is finally being reflected in the price.