Insiders Signal Confidence in Circus SE Amidst Share Price Slump

Circus SE leadership invests amid stock slump, betting 2026 revenue can surge from €0.25M to €55M if key pilot projects with Bundeswehr and REWE convert to commercial deals.

While Circus SE shares trade near multi-year lows, the company's leadership is demonstrating notable faith by investing personal funds. This optimism stems from a highly ambitious revenue forecast for the current year, though its achievement hinges entirely on the successful conversion of ongoing pilot projects into commercial success.

A Bold Revenue Target Faces Operational Reality

The fundamental picture reveals a significant gap between current operations and management's goals. Last year, Circus SE was in a pre-commercial development phase, generating minimal revenue of €0.25 million alongside an operating loss of approximately €15 million. For the current year, 2026, the company projects a dramatic leap. It anticipates revenue climbing to between €44 million and €55 million, while aiming to narrow its EBITDA loss to a range of €6 million to €8 million. This planned scaling is predicated on a gradual ramp-up of deliveries and recurring software income. Looking further ahead, the firm is targeting billion-euro revenue by 2028.

Leadership Purchases During Market Weakness

The equity has lost over 60% of its value in the past year, with its price recently at €6.92, hovering near its 52-week low. During this pronounced period of weakness, however, insiders have been buying. Dr. Jan-Christian Heins, Chairman of the Administrative Board, acquired shares in late February at a price of €7.26. In the preceding weeks, the holding company of CEO Nikolas Bullwinkel also increased its stake on multiple occasions. Market observers frequently interpret such transactions as a signal that executives believe the company's current valuation is unjustifiably low.

Pilot Projects Hold the Key to Scaling

The ambitious plans are primarily supported by existing partnerships. Since January, the autonomous cooking robot, branded as "Circus Defence," has been deployed in selected German Bundeswehr barracks. A framework agreement is also in place with the Ukrainian defense platform BRAVE1. In the civilian sector, retailer REWE is testing the system in stores in Düsseldorf, and Mercedes-Benz plans to equip a staff canteen in Sindelfingen starting this summer. To alleviate high upfront costs for customers, the company plans to launch a leasing model within the first quarter.

The challenge for the coming months is clearly defined. Management points to over 8,000 pre-orders representing a theoretical potential exceeding €1.6 billion. The critical task is transforming these letters of intent and ongoing test phases into firm, revenue-generating contracts. The 2026 forecast can only be justified if these partnerships materialize into concrete delivery numbers and stable income streams. Successfully proving this scalability would also likely facilitate the company's contemplated raising of additional growth capital.