Deutsche Telekom Stock Faces Crucial Test Amid Buyback and Labor Talks

Deutsche Telekom stock faces pressure from wage negotiations and currency headwinds, while a €2B buyback and key T-Mobile US earnings could provide support.

Shares in Deutsche Telekom are navigating a critical juncture, balancing a multi-billion euro share buyback against looming labor negotiations and key earnings from its US subsidiary. The stock closed the week at EUR 29.59, clinging precariously to its 200-day moving average after shedding more than eight percent of its value over the past month.

The company is actively supporting its share price through a substantial repurchase program. For the full year, the telecom giant plans to buy back shares worth up to EUR 2 billion. The second tranche of this effort is already underway, with a bank authorized to acquire stock for up to EUR 550 million by the end of June. This follows a recent dividend payment, where shareholders received a tax-free payout of exactly one euro per share in early April.

Investor attention is now sharply focused on events across the Atlantic. On April 28, T-Mobile US will report its first-quarter results, a date seen as a major short-term catalyst for the Bonn-based parent company. The US business is Deutsche Telekom's primary growth engine. Management has set an ambitious target for T-Mobile US to achieve an adjusted operating profit of up to $37.5 billion by 2026, representing a ten percent year-on-year increase. Some market observers believe the subsidiary could raise this annual guidance imminently, a move that would likely provide significant momentum for the German-listed shares.

Simultaneously, domestic challenges are mounting. Wage negotiations for approximately 60,000 employees in Germany are heating up, with the next round scheduled for April 27. The Ver.di union is demanding a pay increase of 6.6 percent plus an annual bonus of EUR 660. These talks pose a direct risk to the group's financial targets. CEO Tim Höttges aims for an adjusted operating profit of around EUR 47 billion and a free cash flow of nearly EUR 20 billion by 2026. Substantially higher labor costs could pressure these margins.

Further complicating the picture is persistent currency headwind. A weak US dollar negatively impacted earnings by approximately EUR 0.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 alone. The technical picture reflects the recent pressure, with the stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 29.1 indicating an oversold condition.

The sequence of events will culminate with Deutsche Telekom's own first-quarter report on May 13. This will reveal whether broader geopolitical uncertainty has left a mark on the group's performance. For now, the stock's ability to hold above its 200-day average is seen as crucial for maintaining its longer-term upward trend. The coming days, shaped by American earnings and German wage talks, will determine the near-term direction for one of Europe's telecom giants.