Commerzbank Faces Workforce Reduction Threat Amid Takeover Bid

Commerzbank CEO warns a UniCredit takeover could cut 2/3 of jobs, as political and shareholder opposition mounts against the undervalued bid.

Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp has issued a stark warning regarding potential job cuts, as the German lender confronts a voluntary takeover proposal from Italy's UniCredit. Orlopp cautions that a successful acquisition could result in the elimination of up to two-thirds of the bank's positions, drawing a parallel to the significant staff reductions experienced by HypoVereinsbank following its takeover by UniCredit in 2005.

Shareholder and Political Opposition Forms

Resistance to the potential merger is coalescing on multiple fronts. The bank's works council and the Verdi union have aligned with management in opposition. Furthermore, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has publicly advocated for Commerzbank to remain independent. The German federal government, which holds a stake of just over 12 percent, has stated it does not intend to tender its shares.

This opposition is bolstered by Commerzbank's recent operational performance. The institution concluded the 2025 financial year with a record adjusted net income of 3 billion euros, alongside a seven percent increase in its net commission income. Supporting this strength, the bank executed a share buyback program valued at 524 million euros.

A Bid Deemed Below Market Value

UniCredit formally announced its share exchange offer in mid-March. The proposal offers 0.485 UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share, a ratio that implies a value of approximately 30.80 euros per Commerzbank share. Market sentiment, however, suggests this valuation is insufficient, with Commerzbank's stock consistently trading above this level. Investors appear to anticipate an improved offer.

Orlopp has also criticized a lack of clarity surrounding the strategic intentions of UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel. She contends that Orcel's target of a 35 percent cost-to-income ratio would be virtually impossible to achieve without enacting severe cuts to the workforce.

Currently, UniCredit holds a direct 26 percent stake in Commerzbank, with an additional 4 percent held indirectly through derivatives. The offer is strategically designed to surpass the 30 percent threshold that triggers German takeover regulations, although UniCredit emphasizes it is not seeking a controlling interest.

Shareholder Meetings Set to Define the Battle

The coming weeks are poised to be decisive. UniCredit aims to convene an extraordinary general meeting in Italy by May 4 to secure approval for a necessary capital increase. Subsequently, Commerzbank's own annual general meeting on May 20 is expected to become the next focal point of the corporate conflict.

Despite the ongoing takeover pressure, equity analysts maintain a favorable outlook on Commerzbank's stock. Published price targets ranging from 39 to 44 euros per share indicate a widespread belief that the bank's standalone value significantly exceeds the terms of the current proposal.