Coinbase Re-Enters Indian Market with Strategic Relaunch

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After a two-year hiatus, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase has resumed operations in India, marking a significant strategic expansion. The platform has reopened user registrations and is launching with crypto-to-crypto trading services, re-entering a market that continues to demonstrate growth despite a challenging tax environment.

The move follows an early-access program initiated in October and was formally announced by APAC Head John O'Loghlen during the India Blockchain Week. He confirmed the company has completed its registration with India's Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), clearing a key regulatory hurdle for the platform's reactivation.

A notable limitation of the initial phase is the absence of fiat deposit and withdrawal options. This functionality is slated for introduction in 2026. Until then, the exchange will facilitate trades exclusively between different cryptocurrencies. This phased approach underscores Coinbase's commitment to a long-term presence in India, even amidst complex operational conditions.

The Indian market imposes a flat 30% tax on cryptocurrency gains, supplemented by a 1% tax deducted at source (TDS) on every transaction. Undeterred, Coinbase is deepening its investment in the region. The company has increased its stake in the local exchange CoinDCX and plans to expand its on-the-ground team beyond the current 500 employees.

Busy Week: Fed Decision and Investor Conferences

This India push coincides with a pivotal week for the company and broader markets. Coinbase Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas is scheduled to speak at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference on December 9th, followed by an appearance at a Nasdaq conference in London the next day. Commentary on fourth-quarter trends or regulatory outlooks from these events could influence market expectations.

Concurrently, the company's institutional business segment is positioned to benefit from shifting macroeconomic winds. A Federal Reserve interest rate cut is viewed as highly probable, with Polymarket pricing in a 93% chance and the CME FedWatch Tool indicating an 86% likelihood. According to Coinbase's internal M2 index, liquidity conditions are improving, and a weaker U.S. dollar is providing support for risk assets.

Analyst Sentiment Points to Substantial Upside

Coinbase shares currently trade approximately 40% below their all-time high of nearly $445, reached in July. The consensus price target among analysts stands at $389, implying a potential upside of 44% from recent levels. Individual firm targets vary, with Bernstein setting a Street-high target of $510, JPMorgan at $399, and Cantor Fitzgerald at $459.

The company's strong fundamental performance supports this optimism. For the third quarter, Coinbase reported earnings of $1.50 per share, surpassing the $1.15 estimate. Revenue came in between $1.87 billion and $1.90 billion, exceeding projections of $1.8 billion. On a trailing twelve-month basis, net income reached $3.22 billion.

Looking ahead, Coinbase has scheduled a major product announcement for December 17th. In a separate corporate development, the company intends to reincorporate from Delaware to Texas, a move previously undertaken by other notable firms like Tesla and SpaceX.