Circus SE: Defense Deals and a Daunting Commercial Conversion

Robotics firm Circus SE secures NATO military contracts and grows its commercial backlog, but faces a steep path to profitability as its stock remains down nearly 50% year-on-year.

The share price of robotics firm Circus SE has been volatile, gaining over 11% in a single session recently. Yet, this short-term bounce belies a deeper challenge: the stock remains down approximately 46% year-on-year and nearly 49% below its level from twelve months ago. The company’s path to sustainable growth hinges on proving it can convert immense potential into firm, revenue-generating contracts.

A recent win highlights one strategic avenue. Circus SE announced on Thursday that it has secured a public procurement contract with the Lithuanian armed forces. This deal, involving the integration of its containerized, fully autonomous CA-M system into barracks infrastructure in Vilnius, represents the company's second military order in a matter of months. Delivery is scheduled to begin in 2026, with the system to be evaluated in real training scenarios and multinational NATO exercises. This project mirrors an earlier contract from January 2026, where subsidiary Circus Defence SE won a Bundeswehr order for its CA-1 robot at a German barracks site. The strategy is clear: adapt civilian food-tech automation for military logistics, using a visible NATO flank location as a proving ground.

While defense provides a showcase, the core commercial business presents a more complex picture. The order backlog for the flagship CA-1 kitchen robot has grown to 500 firm orders from around 40 customers, with global manufacturer Celestica serving as production partner. Pilot projects are underway across sectors, including a test with REWE in Düsseldorf and a planned deployment in the Mercedes-Benz canteen in Sindelfingen by summer 2026. These pilots operate in a hospitality sector under severe strain, where insolvencies rose nearly 30% in 2025 and costs for goods and labor have increased by up to 40% since 2022—a dynamic that could theoretically boost demand for automation.

Financing this expansion has taken an unconventional route. In March 2026, Circus entered a partnership with Finexity AG. Through the "Circus Robotics I" bond, a special-purpose vehicle will acquire six CA-1 units at 265,000 euros each and lease them back to Circus on a seven-year term. This mini-bond, available from 500 euros, offers an annual interest rate between 6.0% and 10.0% and is intended to reach an eight-figure volume. This complements an existing leasing partnership with LBBW subsidiary MMV Leasing, established in January 2026, designed to lower customer entry costs.

The stark tension in the investment thesis is between current financials and ambitious forecasts. For 2025, Circus reported revenue of 250,000 euros against an operating loss of almost 15 million euros. Management’s projection for 2026 is a leap to between 44 and 55 million euros in revenue. This optimism is underpinned by over 8,000 pre-orders, representing a theoretical volume of 1.6 billion euros. The critical, unanswered question is what percentage of these non-binding reservations will become firm purchases.

Investors will get a crucial early indicator on April 16th, when Circus SE is set to disclose concrete numbers on the conversion rate of its pre-order pipeline. This update will be flanked by appearances at the Metzler Small Cap Days and the WTR Insights Conference on April 14th, and the Invest Stuttgart event on April 17th. For the full year 2026, the company anticipates an EBITDA loss of 6 to 8 million euros, a significant improvement from 2025. However, this forecast only becomes credible if a substantial portion of those 8,000 pre-orders materializes into signed contracts. Until then, the recent share price gains, including a 23% rise over the past week, remain vulnerable. The 52-week high of 22.80 euros from November 2025 still looks distant.