Cardano’s Contradiction: Whale Accumulation Meets Price Weakness

Cardano CRYPTO000ADA

While Cardano's ADA token has been mired in a persistent downtrend, significant activity is unfolding beneath the surface. A stark divergence is emerging: large-scale investors are aggressively expanding their holdings even as the price struggles, and the community is simultaneously advancing major governance reforms. The critical question is whether this combination of fundamental progress and on-chain signals can finally reverse the current bearish price momentum.

Currently trading around $0.35, ADA sits nearly 60% below its 52-week high of $0.87. The coin has been oscillating within a narrow band in recent weeks, with a seven-day and 30-day performance showing a decline of approximately 5%.

The $0.35 zone has solidified as a short-term support level. Technical indicators present a mixed picture. The 50-day moving average at $0.38 has been decisively breached, with the price roughly 9% below it, while the 100-day average at $0.45 remains even more distant. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 32.5 is approaching oversold territory, suggesting selling pressure may be abating.

Institutional Investors Seize the Dip

On-chain data reveals a pronounced contrast between large and small wallet holders. Over the past 60 days, addresses holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have accumulated more than 454 million tokens—a volume worth roughly $160 million at current prices.

The most significant activity came from the largest cohort, wallets holding 10 to 100 million ADA. Following local lows from January 25th, their collective balances rose from 13.59 billion to 13.62 billion ADA. Mid-tier "whales" holding 1 to 10 million ADA also returned as buyers after a brief period of profit-taking, rebuilding positions valued at approximately $3.5 million.

In stark contrast, retail investors are exhibiting caution. Wallets containing 100 to 10,000 ADA have consistently reduced their holdings over the last three weeks, shedding a total of about 22,000 ADA. This divergence between large and small investors is often a precursor to significant price movements, though the ultimate direction will be determined at key technical levels.

Ecosystem Growth and New Protocol Launch

Activity within the Cardano ecosystem continues to expand, even though its total DeFi volume lags behind larger networks like Ethereum and Solana.

Surge Protocol Goes Live

The Surge Protocol launched on the mainnet on January 19th. This project introduces a decentralized, non-custodial market-making protocol to Cardano, aiming to provide traders and token projects with automated trading strategies without relinquishing control of their funds—aligning with the network's decentralization ethos.

Network Metrics Overview

Data from DefiLlama illustrates a growing ecosystem:
* The number of active protocols stands at 387, a 62.4% year-over-year increase.
* Total Value Locked (TVL) is $161.87 million, up nearly 1.5% in the last 24 hours.
* Daily transactions average around 42,000, marking a 57.3% rise from a year ago.
* Peak Transactions Per Second (TPS) has reached 2,500, a 33.3% increase following Hydra upgrades.

DeFi projects such as Minswap, Indigo Protocol, and Aada Finance continue to contribute the majority of the TVL. While the absolute gap to the largest smart contract platforms remains wide, Cardano is demonstrating solid relative growth.

Governance Milestones Set the Long-Term Course

Parallel to price movements, Cardano has achieved crucial governance milestones that will define the ecosystem's long-term framework.

The Updated Constitution

An updated Cardano Constitution (Version 2.4) was ratified on January 24th. The measure received broad support, with 79.85% of delegated representatives (DReps) and 6 out of 7 Constitutional Committee members voting in favor. The revisions aim to create clearer and more robust decision-making processes. Key adjustments include:
* Removing special "Budget Info Actions" as constitutionally relevant budgets.
* Implementing more precise requirements for Treasury withdrawals, which must now be more self-contained.
* Establishing stricter criteria for referencing immutable off-chain documentation.
These changes are designed to enhance the transparency of the governance architecture and prevent misunderstandings in future funding and decision-making processes.

The Cardano 2030 Strategic Vision

Furthermore, DReps have approved the "Cardano 2030 Vision, Mission and Strategy Framework." This proposal garnered 67.80% of the votes cast, with 3.77 billion ADA in voting power committed to this Info Action and 200 DReps voting "Yes."
Developed in 2025 with input from over 700 community members, this framework establishes guiding principles for development through 2030, covering technological priorities, DeFi expansion, and governance objectives. It provides a clear, community-agreed roadmap for the coming years.

Progress Toward Protocol Version 11

Development is also advancing on the protocol level, with the community preparing for the move to Protocol Version 11. One proposal suggests naming the upcoming hard fork "van Rossem" to honor Max van Rossem's contributions to Cardano governance. This Info Action has already secured support from 32% of DReps, with roughly three weeks remaining until the deadline on February 14th.

Declining Volume and Divergent Indicators

A persistent concern is the notable drop in trading activity. Weekly volume has fallen approximately 75%, from around $15 billion during a flash-crash spike in October 2025 to about $3.8 billion currently. This indicates waning short-term speculative interest, even as whale accumulation tells a contrary story.

The technical indicators present an intriguing picture:
* A bullish RSI divergence formed on the daily chart between December 18th and January 25th. While the price marked lower lows, the RSI turned upward—a classic signal of diminishing selling pressure.
* A similar pattern appears in the Money Flow Index (MFI). Despite falling prices between January 21st and 26th, the MFI rose, suggesting accumulation on price dips rather than investor capitulation.

Outlook: The Pivotal $0.35 Zone

In the near term, Cardano faces a decisive technical juncture. The $0.35 area is serving as support, while the distance from key moving averages underscores the current weakness. The combination of substantial whale accumulation, a strengthened governance structure, and a growing ecosystem forms a fundamental counterweight to declining volume and a bearish chart pattern.

Two key factors will be in focus in the coming days. If ADA can stabilize above recent lows and reclaim short-term resistance levels, it would confirm the recent bullish divergences. Conversely, if the price breaks decisively below current support zones, the focus will shift back to lows near $0.33—despite all the progress made at the protocol and governance levels.

@ boerse-global.de | CRYPTO000ADA CARDANO’S