Cardano's Contradiction: Major Holders Accumulate Amid Price Decline

Large investors bought $214M in ADA despite a 71% price crash, as Grayscale boosts holdings and key protocol upgrades near, signaling a potential turning point.

While Cardano's market value has faced persistent downward pressure, a notable divergence is emerging on the blockchain. On-chain data reveals that large-scale investors are significantly increasing their holdings, even as the asset's price continues to slide. This accumulation by so-called "whales" coincides with a packed roadmap of technical upgrades and institutional developments, setting the stage for a potential inflection point.

Institutional and Large Holder Activity Defies Market Sentiment

Analysis from the on-chain analytics platform Santiment indicates a clear trend of accumulation by major addresses. Over the past six months, wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have collectively acquired an additional 819.4 million ADA. This buying spree, valued at approximately $213.9 million, increased this cohort's share of the total supply by 1.6%.

The holdings of these large investors consequently grew from 24.54 billion to 25.35 billion ADA. Their collective stake in Cardano's total supply therefore rose from 66.84% to 68.44%. This accumulation has occurred against a starkly negative price backdrop. Since October 2025, ADA has fallen from around $0.90 to approximately $0.26, representing a decline of over 71%.

Selling pressure remains evident, however. Current daily trading volume sits near $395 million, according to CoinGecko. In the most recent 24-hour period, ADA fell roughly 3.3%, extending its weekly loss to over 10%.

On the institutional front, Grayscale has adjusted the composition of its Smart Contract Fund (SCPXC). Between early January and the end of February, the fund increased its ADA weighting from 18.55% to 20.20%. This makes Cardano the fund's third-largest holding, trailing only Solana (28.53%) and Ethereum (28.39%). Other constituents include Hedera (8.51%), Avalanche (7.52%), and Sui (6.85%). As of early February, the fund managed assets worth roughly $1.8 million, with a Net Asset Value of $5.81 per share.

Separately, Grayscale has a spot Cardano ETF application pending with the SEC. Multiple industry sources anticipate a regulatory decision could come in the first half of 2026.

A Convergence of Technical Milestones

Cardano's development pipeline is approaching several key deliverables. The next protocol upgrade, the intra-era hard fork to version 11 (codenamed "van Rossem"), is progressing. A recent governance vote on the naming proposal concluded with support from over 80% of the active DRep stake.

The Plutus 1.58.0.0 update was deployed on February 21, enhancing built-in functionality slated for activation with protocol version 11 and providing stability improvements for networking and mempool handling. The SanchoNet testnet is already running Node 10.6.2 with the new protocol, while the mainnet-targeted version 10.7.0 is expected "in the coming weeks," according to an Intersect update.

A significant leap in interoperability was also announced in mid-February at Consensus Hong Kong 2026: the integration of LayerZero. This cross-chain messaging protocol connects over 160 blockchains and has facilitated a cumulative cross-chain volume exceeding $200 billion. Through the OFT standard, applications on Cardano are expected to gain access to more than 400 tokens with a combined valuation surpassing $80 billion. The Cardano Foundation, Input Output Global, EMURGO, Midnight Foundation, and Intersect have greenlit the integration, with development of the LayerZero endpoint smart contracts underway.

Two additional launches are on the horizon. The privacy-focused blockchain Midnight, a partner chain to Cardano, is targeting a mainnet launch before the end of March 2026, with MoneyGram and Google Cloud set to be among the initial federated node operators. Furthermore, USDCx, a variant of Circle's USDC stablecoin, is scheduled to launch on Cardano by the end of February, as confirmed by Philip DiSaro, CEO of Anastasia Labs. This development could help address Cardano's current stablecoin deficit; data from DeFiLlama shows the network hosts under $40 million in stablecoin value, lagging far behind ecosystems like Ethereum and Solana.

Market Context and Forward Outlook

As of the latest data, ADA trades around $0.26 with a market capitalization of approximately $9.5 billion. The circulating supply is about 36.8 billion ADA out of a maximum 45 billion. In a move that enhances its institutional profile, the CME Group launched ADA futures contracts, including standard and micro sizes, on February 9, 2026.

The coming weeks are set to bring a cluster of concrete milestones: the anticipated node release for the mainnet, the potential launch of USDCx by February's end, and the target for Midnight's mainnet by late March. This flurry of activity unfolds as the ADA price remains under pressure and large holders continue their accumulation, creating a compelling tension between technical progress and market performance.