Bullish Momentum Builds for Nebius as Major Institutions Take Position

Nebius shares surged 5% as BlackRock massively increased its stake and Compass Point initiated coverage with a $150 price target, signaling strong institutional confidence.

Shares of Nebius advanced approximately 5% during Thursday's trading session. The move was fueled by a confluence of significant institutional developments: the initiation of bullish analyst coverage from Compass Point and the revelation of a massive position increase by asset management giant BlackRock.

A Major Asset Manager Makes a Massive Bet

Recent regulatory filings disclosed this week show that BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, dramatically expanded its stake in the company. As of December 31, 2025, BlackRock held 9.43 million Nebius shares—a staggering increase from a holding of just under 24,000 shares in the prior quarter.

The year-end value of this position stood at approximately $789 million. Notably, this aggressive accumulation occurred despite the company's recent quarterly earnings miss. For Q4, Nebius reported a loss per share of $0.68, compared to an expected loss of $0.54, with revenues of $227.7 million against forecasts of $246.1 million.

This substantial investment appears to be a forward-looking bet on the company's prospects. For the full 2026 fiscal year, Nebius has provided revenue guidance in the range of $3.0 to $3.4 billion. Concurrently, the firm announced capital expenditure plans of $16 to $20 billion. Approximately 60% of this substantial outlay is reportedly already secured through prepayments from major clients, including Microsoft and Meta.

Analyst Coverage Initiates with Strong Conviction

Adding to the positive sentiment, Compass Point analyst Michael Donovan initiated coverage on February 18, 2026, with a "Buy" recommendation. He set a price target of $150 per share, implying an upside potential of over 50% from the recent price level of around $97.52.

In his assessment, Donovan characterizes Nebius as a "full-stack provider of AI infrastructure" and identifies the company as a key beneficiary of persistent shortages in data center capacity and GPU availability. He notes that the company's latest quarterly results have fundamentally strengthened the investment thesis.

This new analysis joins a growing chorus of optimistic ratings from other firms. The current median price target among analysts is approximately $146.50. Recent targets include:
* BWS Financial's $130 target (February 17)
* Morgan Stanley's $126 target
* Northland Capital Markets' $211 target
* Citizens JMP's $175 target with a "Market Outperform" rating

Strategic Expansion Underway

On the operational front, Nebius announced on February 12 the construction of nine new data centers across the United States, France, Israel, and the United Kingdom. The company's annualized revenue run rate (ARR) reached $1.25 billion by year-end, significantly surpassing its own projection of $900 million to $1.1 billion.

Furthermore, the company has agreed to acquire Tavily, a provider of AI-powered search technology, for approximately $275 million. This acquisition is intended to integrate real-time search capabilities directly into the Nebius cloud platform.

Despite a recent correction of about 10%, Nebius shares have more than doubled over the past year, posting a gain of 117%. The latest recovery may signal the start of a new upward trend, with institutional buyers clearly establishing their positions.