Bitcoin’s Sideways Stalemate Persists Amid Mixed Signals

Bitcoin CRYPTO000BTC

As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrow, consolidative range. The cryptocurrency has struggled to maintain momentum above key technical levels, currently hovering around $90,200. This price action places it well below the historic peak of $126,272 recorded in October.

The latest interest rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve has tempered market optimism. While the central bank implemented a widely anticipated 25-basis-point cut, bringing rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a cautious tone regarding future policy easing. The Fed's updated projections now indicate only a single additional rate cut for 2026, fewer than some market participants had hoped for. In response to this more hawkish-than-expected guidance, Bitcoin briefly retreated to $89,260.

From a technical perspective, a critical resistance band exists between $92,000 and $94,000. On the downside, initial support is seen in the $85,500 to $86,300 zone, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the low established in December.

ETF Flows Exhibit Volatility

Investment patterns in U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown notable inconsistency in recent sessions:

• December 9: Inflows of $151.9 million
• December 10: Inflows of $223.5 million
• December 11: Outflows of $77.5 million
• December 12: Minimal net movement

Collectively, these investment vehicles now hold approximately 1.36 million BTC, valued at roughly $103 billion. This substantial holding represents nearly 7% of Bitcoin's total circulating supply.

Corporate acquisition activity remains robust. Strategy Inc., the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, added to its treasury between December 1 and 7, purchasing an additional 10,624 BTC at an average price of $90,615 per coin. The firm's total holdings now stand at 660,624 BTC.

On-Chain Metrics Suggest Selling Pressure Easing

Data from analytics firm CryptoQuant indicates a potential reduction in sell-side pressure. Deposits to exchanges by large holders have declined significantly, falling from 47% in November to 21% currently. The average size of these deposits has also decreased by 36%, dropping from 1.1 BTC to 0.7 BTC.

A particularly noteworthy trend is the accumulation by entities holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. These wallets have increased their balances by approximately 110% since October. Furthermore, long-term holders absorbed an estimated 186,000 BTC throughout November, suggesting conviction-based buying at lower price levels.

Bitcoin's realized capitalization—a metric valuing each coin at the price it last moved—has reached a new all-time high of $1.1 trillion. Since the cycle low in November 2022, a net total of $732 billion has flowed into the Bitcoin network.

Technical Indicators Paint a Cautious Picture

On the charts, Bitcoin is finding support at its 100-week exponential moving average, situated at $85,809. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 40 and is ticking slightly higher, indicating a potential weakening of bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator executed a bullish crossover in late November, which has held so far.

Sentiment in the derivatives market remains guarded. While aggregate open interest for futures contracts sits at a record $68 billion, traders continue to show a preference for hedging against downside risk. The put-call ratio for options expiring on December 13 stands at 1.09, reflecting this cautious stance.

Year-End Prospects and Key Levels

Historically, December has been a positive month for Bitcoin, with an average gain of 4.55%. However, the fourth quarter of 2025 is currently showing a decline of 19%. The immediate focus for bulls remains a decisive break above the $92,000 barrier. A sustained move beyond this level could open a path toward the $99,000 to $100,000 range. Conversely, a drop below $83,700 would likely confirm the resumption of the downward trend initiated in October.