Barrick Mining's Copper Delay and Corporate Split Define a Pivotal Moment

Barrick Gold leverages record-high gold prices for a major North American spin-off, while its flagship $9B Reko Diq copper project in Pakistan is delayed until at least 2029.

Barrick Mining finds itself at a strategic crossroads, pulled in opposite directions by a golden windfall and a costly copper setback. While record bullion prices are delivering historic margins, the company has been forced to shelve its flagship $9 billion Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan. This development arrives just as management prepares a major corporate overhaul: the spin-off and public listing of its North American assets into a new entity, dubbed "NewCo."

The gold market is providing a formidable financial cushion. On April 17, the spot price climbed to $4,798 per ounce, heading for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. For Barrick, whose 2026 planning is based on a $4,500 gold price assumption, this environment is exceptionally lucrative. With all-in-sustaining costs between $1,760 and $1,950 per ounce, the company is currently earning approximately $3,000 on every ounce sold, translating to margins of nearly 70%. This massive spread is fueling robust financials; revenue for 2025 rose 31% to nearly $17 billion, with profit more than doubling.

This operational strength is centered in North America. Production at the Carlin mine jumped 25% last quarter, and assets across the region continue to deliver reliably. This consistent performance forms the bedrock for the planned corporate separation. The new "NewCo" will bundle 64% of Barrick's total gold production, a move analysts see as a potential catalyst for the share price. CEO Mark Hill believes the standalone entity will command a higher valuation by eliminating the typical conglomerate discount often applied to diversified miners.

However, the postponement of the Reko Diq project casts a long shadow over the company's growth narrative in another critical metal. Citing a deteriorating security situation in Pakistan and ripple effects from the Middle East conflict, Barrick has slowed development until at least mid-2027. First production, previously expected in 2028, is now pushed back to 2029 at the earliest. The project was envisioned as a decade-long growth engine, with the potential to produce 400,000 tonnes of copper and 500,000 ounces of gold annually, generating a projected free cash flow exceeding $70 billion over its life.

Not all copper ambitions are stalled. The roughly $2 billion "Super Pit" expansion at the Lumwana mine in Zambia is slightly ahead of schedule, with equipment for the 2026 mining fleet already arriving. This project aims to double copper output by 2028, a key step in Barrick's goal to join the ranks of the world's top ten copper producers.

Investors now face a mixed picture. The stock, which has gained 61% over the past six months and currently trades between C$58 and C$62, must weigh the promise of a value-unlocking spin-off against the delay of a major future cash flow stream. Rising costs also present a headwind; all-in-sustaining costs increased by about 9% year-over-year in the fourth quarter as energy and labor expenses chip away at record margins.

The company's first-quarter results, due on May 11, 2026, will offer a fresh snapshot of its financial health amid these crosscurrents. With analysts like those at J.P. Morgan forecasting gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by year-end and even $6,000 longer-term, Barrick's cost buffer may grow thicker. The ultimate price of the Reko Diq delay, however, remains a pivotal question for its long-term growth trajectory.