ASML Shares Stage a Late-Quarter Rally Following Market Volatility

ASML shares surged over 5% on March 31 amid a sector rebound. JPMorgan reiterated its €1,515 target, while SK Hynix's $8B EUV order countered internal protests and AI demand concerns.

The first quarter concluded on a notably positive note for ASML Holding NV, with its equity surging more than 5% on March 31. This rebound provided some relief to shareholders after a challenging March characterized by sector-wide selling pressure and company-specific concerns.

A Sector-Wide Rebound Provides Momentum

The final trading day of the quarter witnessed a powerful upswing across the semiconductor sector. The iShares Semiconductor ETF recorded its most substantial single-day gain of the year on that date. This rally followed a period of significant decline, during which the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) had shed over 8% in the preceding two weeks. Market observers attributed the late surge to investors capitalizing on depressed valuations across the chip sector.

In a move that aligned with the share price recovery, analysts at JPMorgan reiterated their bullish stance on ASML. The firm’s strategist, Sandeep Deshpande, confirmed an Overweight rating and a price target of €1,515. The endorsement highlighted ASML as a top selection for the year, predicated on an anticipated multi-year growth cycle within the semiconductor equipment market.

Navigating a Month of Headwinds

Despite the strong finish, March presented several obstacles. On March 26, uncertainty rippled through chip-related stocks following an announcement from Google. The tech giant introduced a new compression algorithm named TurboQuant, designed to reduce the memory requirements for artificial intelligence applications—a development perceived as a potential headwind for semiconductor demand.

Internally, ASML faced employee unrest. On March 24, more than 1,000 staff members protested at the company’s Veldhoven headquarters against planned workforce reductions, which target approximately 1,700 positions. Interestingly, the same day brought a significant piece of positive news: South Korea’s SK Hynix disclosed an order for ASML’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems. Valued at nearly $8 billion and extending through 2027, this commitment stands as the largest single customer order ever publicly reported by ASML.

Upcoming Financial Events in Focus

Attention now turns to the company’s forthcoming financial disclosures. ASML is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2026 results on April 15. Investors will scrutinize new order bookings and the revenue mix for signals of underlying demand strength. For the full year, Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet has provided guidance for net sales between €34 billion and €39 billion, with a gross margin projected in the range of 51% to 53%.

The company entered the year with a substantial order backlog of €38.8 billion, as reported in its 2025 annual results. A key question for the upcoming quarterly report is the pace at which this backlog converts into shipped systems and recognized revenue. Subsequently, the Annual General Meeting will be held on April 22. A final dividend payment of €2.70 per share is set to follow two days later, on April 24.