ASML Accelerates Share Buybacks as Shareholders Gather

ASML's aggressive share buyback and dividend hike follow record Q1 results. The chip equipment giant raises its 2026 revenue forecast as analysts lift price targets.

ASML Holding NV is deploying billions of euros to repurchase its own stock at a rapid clip, providing a direct boost to shareholders ahead of a pivotal annual meeting. In just the week of April 13-17, the semiconductor equipment leader spent approximately €84 million to acquire nearly 67,000 of its shares, pausing only on the day it reported first-quarter earnings.

This aggressive buyback activity is underpinned by formidable financial results. For the first quarter, ASML posted net sales of €8.8 billion and a net profit of €2.8 billion, handily exceeding market consensus. Its gross margin reached 53%, landing at the top end of its own forecast range. On this strength, management has raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to a range of €36 billion to €40 billion.

The company’s capital return program is multifaceted. Alongside the buybacks, ASML has announced a total dividend of €7.50 per share for fiscal 2025, marking a 17% increase over the prior year. Shareholders at Wednesday’s annual meeting in Veldhoven will vote on the final proposed installment of €2.70 per share.

Analysts raise targets amid operational momentum

The upgraded guidance has prompted several financial institutions to revise their price targets upward. Goldman Sachs now sees fair value at €1,570, Deutsche Bank at €1,600, and RBC Capital Markets at €1,700. The stock recently traded around €1,242, having gained roughly 26% since the start of the year and sitting comfortably above its 200-day moving average.

Operationally, extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems continue to dominate, accounting for 66% of system sales in Q1. The company plans to deliver at least 60 low-NA EUV systems in 2026, with that figure rising to 80 in 2027. The services business contributed a solid €2.5 billion to quarterly revenue.

Strategic shifts and geopolitical shadows

The shareholder gathering will also address a significant strategic shift. For the first time, ASML’s quarterly report omitted a specific figure for net new bookings, a key metric closely watched by investors. CEO Christophe Fouquet assured that order intake remains "very strong," but analysts like Ben Barringer of Quilter Cheviot noted the change creates an adjustment period for the market.

Geopolitical tensions are casting a visible shadow. Sales to Chinese customers fell to 19% of total revenue in Q1, down from 36% at the end of last year. This decline occurs as a bipartisan group of U.S. politicians calls for a complete halt to sales of deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines to Chinese chipmakers. Fouquet stated the wide range of the 2026 revenue forecast already incorporates potential tightening of U.S. export controls.

The €1.1 billion spent on share repurchases in Q1 is part of a program launched in January that is set to run through 2028. The weekly purchases in mid-April were executed across four trading days, with the largest single block of 21,784 shares bought on Monday at a weighted average price of €1,255.

Leadership renewal on the agenda

The annual meeting will formalize a refresh of the company’s leadership. ASML is appointing a new chief technology officer and extending the contracts of its finance and operations chiefs. Benjamin Loh, the former CEO of ASM International, is also joining the supervisory board.

While Barclays expressed slight disappointment that the EUV capacity targets were not raised further, the overall narrative from Veldhoven is one of financial strength tempered by cautious geopolitics. Shareholders will be listening intently for details on how the company plans to secure its ambitious capacity expansion and what contingency plans exist for an increasingly complex trade environment.