Almonty Shares Surge to Unprecedented Highs on Dual Catalysts

Almonty CA0203981034

Almonty Industries Inc. reached a record peak in its share price yesterday, propelled by a powerful combination of geopolitical developments and strengthening commodity fundamentals. This convergence has thrust the strategic importance of its core metal into sharp focus for the market.

The rally was ignited by fresh political signals from the United States. The Trump administration's announcement of "Project Vault," an initiative designed to bolster domestic production of critical raw materials and reduce reliance on China, served as a primary catalyst. The program targets over 50 minerals classified as critical by the U.S. Department of the Interior.

Tungsten, essential for defense applications, is prominently featured on this list. Almonty stands to benefit directly from this policy shift, as it operates as one of the few significant tungsten producers located outside of Chinese control. Concurrently, the market for the metal itself is tightening. Research firm Sphene Capital GmbH points to structural supply shortfalls and geopolitically-driven demand, noting that the tungsten APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) reference price has recently climbed to approximately $1,250 per metric tonne unit (MTU).

Record Trading and Revised Price Target

During yesterday's session, Almonty's stock price climbed as high as $13.60 intraday before closing at $13.39, according to Yahoo Finance data. This represented a single-day gain of roughly 18%.

This surge followed a significant analyst update. Sphene Capital substantially raised its price target for Almonty to CAD 20.10, up from a previous target of CAD 13.50. The firm cited a "historic breakthrough" in tungsten prices as the core rationale for its upgraded valuation.

Key data points from the analysis include:
* Tungsten APT surpassed the $1,000 per MTU threshold in mid-January for the first time.
* Current supply tightness is attributed to historically low spot inventories for APT and concentrates.
* China, which controls 82.7% of global tungsten mine production, has notably tightened export rules and production quotas since early 2025, implementing stricter licenses and lower quotas for tungsten ores and intermediates.

Production Expansion Amid Global Shortfalls

While global supply faces constraints, Almonty is advancing its key growth project: the Sangdong mine in South Korea. The schedule calls for Phase 1 production to commence in 2026, with a Phase 2 expansion slated for completion in 2027. Upon full ramp-up, the company anticipates annual production from Sangdong to reach 460,000 MTU.

Sphene Capital identifies the defense sector as a major, sustained demand driver. Tungsten alloys are deemed critical for armor-piercing ammunition, high-performance tools, and various military components. The research emphasizes that the metal's unique properties make it nearly irreplaceable in many defense applications, rendering demand for it less sensitive to price fluctuations. Further compounding the supply issue, environmental regulations and regulatory interventions in key producing regions have also curtailed physical output.