Almonty Shares Surge on Supply Squeeze and Strategic Milestones

Almonty Industries' stock surges ~45% in 2 weeks as Chinese export controls tighten tungsten supply and its Sangdong mine hits commercial production, with analysts bullish.

A powerful convergence of market dynamics and corporate execution is fueling an extraordinary rally for Almonty Industries Inc. The tungsten producer’s stock is reaching unprecedented heights, driven by stringent Chinese export controls and the successful ramp-up of its flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea. This bullish sentiment is further amplified by a wave of upward revisions from financial analysts.

The equity achieved a new 52-week high on the TSX this Friday, trading at C$25.27 before closing at C$25.17. This marks an advance in nine of the prior ten trading sessions, culminating in a two-week gain of approximately 45%. The momentum continued into the next session, with the share price recently quoted at C$27.97, moving within a daily range of C$26.12 to C$28.40.

Supply-Side Dynamics Drive Market Tightness

The primary catalyst stems from a significant constriction in global tungsten supply. China, which sources an estimated 75–80% of the world's tungsten, substantially tightened export restrictions towards the end of 2025. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets noted that certain Chinese tungsten exports temporarily ground to a complete halt during this period.

The impact on pricing was immediate and severe. Tungsten prices soared by over 160% in 2025 and have continued their ascent into the early weeks of 2026. BMO anticipates no near-term relief on the supply front, citing drawn-down inventories. Almonty CEO Lewis Black recently characterized the situation as a "real, legitimate supply shortage," confirming that customers are currently accepting the elevated price levels.

Additional pressure originates from U.S. policy. A planned U.S. Department of Defense ban on tungsten sourced from China, Russia, or North Korea, set to take effect January 1, 2027, is accelerating efforts to diversify supply chains well in advance.

Operational Focus: Sangdong Reaches Commercial Production

Operationally, all eyes are on the Sangdong project, which commenced commercial production in December 2025. The expansion to full capacity is reportedly on schedule, with completion targeted for 2027. At that point, the company aims for Sangdong to eventually satisfy roughly 40% of tungsten demand outside of China.

Beyond Sangdong, Couloir Capital highlights several other strategic initiatives. These include a planned capacity increase at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal, resource definition work for the molybdenum project at Sangdong, and progress at the Gentung Browns Lake project in the USA, which could be ready in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, a Phase-II expansion at Sangdong is slated for 2027, potentially raising annual throughput to 1.2 million tonnes.

Recent news from Portugal added further stability: a subsidiary secured a new long-term tungsten supply agreement. This enhances revenue predictability and strengthens the company's position within the critical minerals supply chain.

Analyst and Institutional Sentiment Turns Decidedly Bullish

The shifting landscape is reflected in substantial analyst upgrades. Couloir Capital raised its fair value estimate by more than 150%, from C$7.69 to C$19.30, citing tungsten prices above US$1,000 per metric ton unit (MTU) and the Sangdong ramp-up. DA Davidson increased its price target from US$12 to US$18, while B. Riley Financial set a target of US$17. Oppenheimer raised its target from US$12 to US$16 and issued a "Buy" rating on February 5, 2026.

The consensus average 12-month price target now stands at C$17.66, with a high estimate of C$27.50. Eight analysts recommend purchasing the shares, with none advising a sale.

Institutional interest has surged in parallel. The number of funds holding positions grew by over 55% last quarter to 107. Van Eck Associates reportedly increased its stake by a staggering 13,294.7%, now holding 11.24 million shares valued at approximately US$99 million. Other significant new positions include those of Encompass Capital Advisors (around US$25.6 million) and Next Century Growth Investors (roughly US$16.3 million).

To fund its growth, the company completed two U.S. capital raises in 2025, generating aggregate gross proceeds of about US$219.4 million.

The market now awaits the next key catalyst: quarterly results scheduled for release on March 26. This report will provide the first concrete look at how the record tungsten prices and ongoing production ramp-up are translating into financial performance.