Almonty Shares Surge on Supply Squeeze and Production Milestone

Analysts raise Almonty's price target to CAD $19.30 as its South Korean tungsten mine starts production, offering a non-Chinese supply amid a critical global shortage.

As Western nations intensify their search for secure supplies of strategic minerals for semiconductors and defense, a Canadian mining firm is capturing significant market attention. Almonty Industries is positioned to benefit from a pronounced global supply deficit, a situation amplified by the successful commencement of production at its key tungsten asset in South Korea. Market analysts are now reassessing the company's potential in light of these developments.

Revised Price Targets Reflect New Reality

The shifting landscape has prompted a substantial reevaluation by research firm Couloir Capital. In a recent update, the analysts dramatically increased their price target for Almonty, moving it from CAD $7.69 to CAD $19.30. This significant adjustment is a direct response to operational progress. The company's Sangdong mine officially began production in December 2025, with plans to achieve full capacity by 2027. Once fully operational, this project is expected to rank among the world's largest tungsten sources outside of China, providing a stable alternative for this critical material.

This fundamental reassessment occurs against a backdrop of extreme market tension. China currently dominates the global tungsten supply, controlling over 80% of production. Recent stricter export quotas and environmental regulations have further constrained the availability of the metal on the international market. Concurrently, demand is accelerating, driven by tungsten's essential role in high-performance semiconductors and advanced military hardware. This supply-demand imbalance is compelling Western economies to urgently diversify their supply chains.

Elevated Commodity Price Assumptions

Financial models are being recalibrated to account for the new market paradigm of higher sustained commodity costs. Couloir Capital has revised its long-term price assumption for ammonium paratungstate (APT) to $800 per metric ton unit (MTU), a substantial increase from its previous estimate of $450.

Notably, current market conditions are surpassing even these elevated forecasts. Recent spot prices for tungsten have breached the $1,000 per MTU threshold. As Almonty systematically ramps up its South Korean operation toward its 2027 capacity goals, the company is poised to operate in a favorable pricing environment. This robust price backdrop is anticipated to significantly bolster profit margins in the coming quarters.