Almonty Shares Surge on Production Milestone and Tightening Tungsten Market

Almonty CA0203981034

Almonty Industries Inc. is experiencing a powerful revaluation, with its equity reaching unprecedented levels across multiple exchanges. The catalyst for this significant upward move is a dual narrative: tangible operational progress at its flagship Sangdong project in South Korea and a fundamentally tightening global tungsten market. Together, these factors are reshaping the investment thesis around the company.

The core development driving investor confidence is the transition from developer to producer. In December 2025, the first truckload of ore was shipped from the Sangdong mine, marking the commencement of active mining operations. This event initiates the final phase before the ramp-up to full production, which is targeted for 2026.

This operational shift substantially de-risks the project, transforming Almonty from a development-stage company into an emerging producer with real revenue. The company has already outlined an expansion plan, with a second phase scheduled for 2027. Upon completion, Sangdong is projected to achieve an annual production capacity of 460,000 Metric Tonne Units (MTU) of tungsten oxide. This scale would position it among the largest tungsten mines outside China, a status currently supporting a premium in the stock's valuation.

Geopolitical Tailwinds and Contract Security

Further momentum stems from Almonty’s strategic role in supply chains critical to Western defense. The company has secured binding offtake agreements, including long-term supply contracts for applications within the U.S. defense sector.

This positioning is particularly potent against the backdrop of rising tungsten prices. Market data from the second half of January 2026 shows the CIF Rotterdam price for Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) trading in a range of USD 1,000 to USD 1,050 per MTU. Analysts attribute increasing prices to Chinese export restrictions and an impending U.S. ban on defense-related tungsten imports from China, effective from 2027. These dynamics enhance the potential margin profile for non-Chinese producers like Almonty.

Market Re-Rating and Performance Metrics

The financial markets are reflecting a profound reassessment of Almonty’s prospects. The stock is trading at a 52-week high, with the company’s market capitalization standing at approximately CAD 4.24 billion.

Key performance indicators underscore the rally:

• Weekly Gain: +28.25% (week ending January 25, 2026)
• Year-to-Date Performance (2026): +26.2%
• 12-Month Return: +971.01%
• Trend Rating: Strong upward momentum (graded A)
• Analyst Consensus: Strong Buy

This performance suggests the market is pricing in a significant portion of the anticipated operational progress and future production base.

Insider Confidence and Institutional Interest

Market sentiment is further bolstered by reported insider activity. Recent filings indicate insider transactions occurred during the share price advance, interpreted as a signal of continued management confidence despite the elevated valuation.

Additionally, the stock has appeared in high-volume screenings alongside major logistics and shipping companies, pointing to noticeably increased institutional liquidity. While technical indicators may signal overbought conditions in the short term, the fundamental shift to a producing status provides a foundation that underpins the current valuation.

In recent after-hours trading, the stock was quoted around USD 12.16 and approximately CAD 15.24 on the TSX. Investors should anticipate continued volatility as the market gradually incorporates the full impact of Sangdong’s production ramp-up on future revenue, margins, and valuation.