Almonty Shares Pull Back Following Monumental Rally

Almonty Industries shares pull back 8.3% after a meteoric rise fueled by China's tungsten export restrictions. The company's Sangdong mine is now operational as global supply tightens.

Shares of Canadian tungsten producer Almonty Industries retreated on Friday, pausing after one of the most dramatic multi-year rallies witnessed in the mining sector. The stock closed the session down 8.3% at $19.30, following a week where it had traded briefly above $21. The pullback occurred on below-average volume—approximately 48% lower than the daily norm—suggesting the move was driven more by profit-taking than a fundamental shift in market sentiment.

This minor correction is set against an extraordinary backdrop: over the course of a single year, the company's share price skyrocketed from around one dollar to over $21, representing a gain in excess of 2,000%.

A Structural Shift in the Tungsten Market

The primary catalyst for this unprecedented surge is a major structural change in global tungsten supply dynamics. In February 2025, China imposed export restrictions on five critical raw materials, including tungsten. The impact was immediate and severe. According to trade data, China's exports of tungsten APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) plummeted by nearly 70% in the first eleven months of 2025, falling to just 243 tonnes from 782 tonnes for the full year 2024. Concurrently, prices for Chinese tungsten products, as reported by Fastmarkets, soared by more than 200%.

China's dominance in this market underscores the scale of the disruption; in 2023, the nation was responsible for over 80% of global tungsten production.

Operational Growth and Strategic Projects

Almonty is positioned to benefit from this new market reality through its flagship asset: the Sangdong mine in South Korea's Gangwon province. Hosting reserves of 7.9 million tonnes, Sangdong is considered one of the world's largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits. The operation is now underway, with the first ore shipment having left the site and processing facilities running according to schedule. The company plans a phased expansion, aiming to ramp up annual capacity to 1.2 million tonnes by 2027.

Beyond Sangdong, Almonty is advancing its development pipeline. This includes the Panasqueira mine in Portugal and the Gentung-Browns-Lake project in the United States, which could be ready for production as early as the second half of 2026. To fund this growth, the company raised gross proceeds of more than $219 million through two U.S. capital raises in 2025.

Institutional interest has grown in tandem. The number of funds holding positions in Almonty recently increased by over 55% to 107. Notably, Van Eck Associates significantly expanded its stake to 11.24 million shares, marking an increase of 13,294%.

Divergent Analyst Views Ahead of Earnings

Market experts are divided on the stock's outlook ahead of its quarterly report. On March 6, DA Davidson raised its price target to $25 from $18, maintaining a Buy rating. B. Riley increased its target to $17 in February. In contrast, the consensus price target compiled by MarketBeat sits at $13.15, approximately 21% below Friday's closing price. Weiss Ratings continues to recommend selling the shares.

The upcoming financial results, scheduled for release on March 26, are expected to provide clarity. This will be the first earnings report to fully reflect both the historically high tungsten prices and the commenced production at Sangdong, serving as an initial stress test for the company's current market valuation.