Almonty's Strategic Pivot: Capitalizing on the U.S.-China Tungsten Shift

Almonty Industries secures supply deals and expands its South Korean mine to replace Chinese tungsten for the US defense sector, backed by strong finances and analyst upgrades.

A forthcoming U.S. legal mandate, effective 2027, will prohibit the American defense industry from sourcing tungsten from China. Almonty Industries is positioning itself directly to fill this impending supply gap through a newly secured off-take agreement and a comprehensive expansion strategy in South Korea. This move signals a fundamental transformation for the company, evolving from a pure-play mine developer into an integrated supplier of critical raw materials.

Financial Backing and Analyst Confidence

The company's financial position to execute this strategy appears robust. Following two capital raises last year, Almonty closed 2025 with liquid assets of CAD $268.4 million, eliminating any immediate financial pressure for the Sangdong mine expansion. This strength, combined with a changed pricing environment and secured sales, has prompted several Wall Street firms to revise their outlooks upward:

• Diamond Equity Research: Increased its 2026 EPS estimate from $0.23 to $0.45.
• B. Riley Financial: Raised its price target from $17.00 to $23.00.
• Oppenheimer: Issued a new price target of $19.00, up from $16.00.
• DA Davidson: Reaffirmed its price target of $25.00.

Market sentiment is reflected in the equity's performance, with the stock advancing approximately 78% since the start of the year, recently trading at CAD $21.39.

The "Korean Trinity" and Vertical Integration

At the core of Almonty's new direction is a binding supply contract with U.S. defense contractor Tungsten Parts Wyoming and Israeli processor Metal Tech. The initial three-year agreement guarantees monthly delivery of at least 40 metric tons of tungsten oxide.

To secure these volumes long-term and capture more value internally, management is implementing what it terms the "Korean Trinity" strategy centered on the Sangdong mine. This integrated plan involves tripling down on the asset: doubling the mine's capacity by 2027, constructing an on-site processing plant, and developing an adjacent molybdenum deposit. At full capacity, the South Korean complex is projected to supply roughly 40% of the global tungsten demand originating outside of China.

The timing for this vertical integration is opportune. The average price for Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) has surged by 534% over the past twelve months, reaching $2,250 per metric ton unit (MTU), driven significantly by military applications.

Parallel Development Strengthens U.S. Supply Chain

Alongside its flagship Korean project, Almonty is advancing the Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana. Production there is scheduled to commence in the second half of 2026. This North American operation will further solidify the supply chain for the U.S. defense sector, supported by a 15-year supply contract.