Almonty Industries Stock Receives Massive Valuation Upgrade Amid Soaring Tungsten Prices

Analysts double Almonty's fair value to CAD 19.30 as Western defense bans and China's export controls fuel a critical tungsten supply squeeze. Shares surged 8.4%.

A dramatic reassessment of Almonty Industries by the research firm Couloir Capital has sent a powerful signal to the market. The catalyst is a tungsten price rally showing no signs of abating, coupled with urgent Western efforts to secure independent supplies of critical minerals. Shares on the NASDAQ reacted immediately with substantial gains.

Geopolitical Shifts Fueling a Supply Squeeze

The surge in the underlying commodity price is not occurring in a vacuum. Market observers point to a potent mix of robust defense sector demand and a tightening supply landscape. Structural pressures intensified in 2025 when China implemented export controls. An impending U.S. regulation is set to add further momentum: effective January 1, 2027, the Department of Defense will ban the procurement of tungsten mined or processed in China, Russia, or North Korea. This mandate is forcing Western consumers to rapidly diversify their supply chains.

According to recent investor presentations, the spot price for Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) had already reached approximately $1,738 per metric ton unit (MTU) by mid-February 2026.

Analyst Fair Value Estimate More Than Doubles

Couloir Capital made headlines this week with a decisive update. The analysts drastically revised their long-term price assumption for APT upward from $450 to $800 per MTU, acknowledging that current spot prices are trading significantly higher, above $1,000. This reassessment led to a staggering increase in their fair value estimate for Almonty Industries stock—from CAD 7.69 to CAD 19.30, representing a jump of over 150%. The firm maintained its "Hold" rating on the shares.

The market's response was unequivocally positive. Almonty's stock on the NASDAQ advanced 8.4% to approximately $16.86 following the news. On its home exchange, the TSX in Canada, the equity has been on a steep upward trajectory since the start of 2026.

Operational Momentum from Key Mine Ramp-Up

Beyond favorable external market conditions, Almonty is making tangible operational progress. Its flagship Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea commenced active operations in December 2025. The company is currently executing a phased ramp-up, targeting full production capacity by 2027.

This project pipeline, which also includes expansion at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal and development of assets in Montana, is fostering broader analyst optimism. Both DA Davidson and B. Riley Financial issued significant price target increases for Almonty in February.

Investor attention now turns to March 19, 2026, when the company is scheduled to release its next quarterly results. These figures will be scrutinized for evidence that the soaring commodity prices and high expectations are translating into stronger financial performance.