Almonty Industries Shares Continue Their Ascent Amid Strategic Metal Demand

Almonty Industries stock surges 150% in 3 months as defense demand and China export controls tighten tungsten supply, sparking a valuation debate.

The equity of Almonty Industries remains in a powerful uptrend on global exchanges. Yesterday, the stock surged to a fresh 52-week peak, propelled by tightening supply dynamics and robust demand from the defense industry. However, as the share price climbs, fundamental metrics present a more complex picture, raising questions about whether the current valuation fully accounts for the risks surrounding this tungsten-focused miner.

Operational Milestones Underpin Momentum

Beyond macro factors, company-specific developments are contributing to positive sentiment. At its flagship Sangdong project in South Korea, Almonty commenced active mining in December 2025 and has begun initial ore deliveries. The company is currently ramping up the first phase of commercial production. A planned Phase II expansion, targeted for completion by 2027, is expected to boost annual capacity to as much as 1.2 million tonnes. Progress continues at other sites, including projects in Portugal and Montana, with the latter anticipated to be production-ready in the second half of 2026.

Supply Chain Shifts Fuel Commodity Pricing

A significant driver behind the rally is a reshaping of global supply chains for tungsten, a critical strategic metal. China has tightened export controls, while a U.S. Department of Defense ban on tungsten sourced from China, Russia, or North Korea is set to take effect January 1, 2027. This geopolitical landscape is forcing Western consumers to urgently diversify their sources, creating a supply squeeze.

The direct impact is visible in raw material prices. By mid-February, the spot price for Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) had reached approximately $1,738 per tonne. This environment directly benefits primary producers outside the restricted regions.

Valuation Debate Intensifies

The steep appreciation in Almonty's share price has ignited a debate over its valuation. The stock now trades at a price-to-book ratio exceeding 37, far above the industry average of 3.8. Furthermore, the company is not yet profitable. Proponents counter this by pointing to discounted cash flow models, which suggest a fair value significantly above the current trading price. These models are predicated on expectations for strong revenue growth and a path to profitability within a three-year horizon.

Institutional and Analyst Sentiment Strengthens

Growing confidence is reflected in the shareholder register. The number of invested funds and institutional holders increased by 55% last quarter, reaching 107. Notably, Van Eck Associates substantially expanded its position and now holds over 4% of the shares. This activity is accompanied by supportive analyst commentary. In February, both DA Davidson (price target $18) and B. Riley ($17), along with Sphene Capital, raised their expectations for the company.

The recent jump to $17.31 on the NASDAQ represents the latest high in a remarkable rally that has seen the stock advance roughly 150% over the past three months. For investors, the immediate focus now shifts to the upcoming quarterly results, expected by the end of March 2026. These financials will be scrutinized for evidence that elevated tungsten prices and the operational ramp-up are translating to the bottom line and paving the way out of unprofitability.