Almonty Industries: Riding the Wave of a Transforming Tungsten Market

Almonty's shares surge to a 52-week high as China's export curbs create a tungsten supply crisis, positioning its Sangdong mine as a key Western alternative. Analysts raise targets.

Almonty Industries is undergoing a significant market reappraisal. Its shares have surged from approximately one US dollar to a 52-week high of $21.18, driven by a fundamental shift in the global tungsten supply landscape and the company's own evolution from project developer to active producer.

Geopolitics and Supply Squeeze Fuel Price Surge

A structural supply deficit is defining the tungsten market. China, which controls an estimated 75% to 80% of global production, implemented substantially tighter export quotas at the end of 2025. This policy shift triggered a price explosion, with tungsten advancing by over 160% in the past year and maintaining its upward trajectory into early 2026. According to BMO Capital Markets, Chinese tungsten exports temporarily ground to a complete halt.

Further complicating the market, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have created a price divergence. Defense-grade tungsten has decoupled from the benchmark product, ammonium paratungstate (APT). This environment has Western industrial firms urgently seeking reliable, non-Chinese sources of supply—a dynamic positioning Almonty as a strategic alternative supplier.

Sangdong Mine Transitions to Production

A pivotal milestone was reached as the first ore shipment departed the Sangdong mine in South Korea's Gangwon province. This marks the official start of active mining operations ahead of full-scale commercial production. Processing facilities are running on schedule, with capacity slated for a phased increase through 2027. Sangdong is recognized as one of the world's most significant tungsten resources, hosting reserves of 7.9 million metric tonnes.

A Phase-II expansion planned for 2027 aims to boost annual capacity to as much as 1.2 million tonnes. Beyond Sangdong, Almonty is advancing a capacity increase at its Panasqueira mine in Portugal and defining resources for a molybdenum project at Sangdong. Furthermore, the company's Gertung-Browns-Lake project in the United States could achieve production readiness as early as the second half of 2026.

Analyst Upgrades and Institutional Accumulation

Market experts are revising their outlooks in response to these developments. DA Davidson raised its price target for Almonty from $18.00 to $25.00, reiterating a buy recommendation. The firm anticipates the weekly Fastmarkets price fixing could surpass the $2,000 per metric tonne unit (mtu) threshold. Similarly, Couloir Capital increased its fair value target by more than 150% during the current cycle—from C$7.69 to C$19.30—citing sustained tungsten prices above $1,000 per mtu and the Sangdong production ramp-up.

Institutional investors are also building substantial positions. The number of funds holding stakes grew by more than 55% last quarter, reaching 107. Van Eck Associates boosted its holding by a staggering 13,294.7%, accumulating 11.24 million shares worth approximately $99 million. Other significant investments include roughly $25.6 million from Encompass Capital Advisors and about $16.3 million from Next Century Growth Investors.

Forthcoming Earnings: The First Real-World Test

All eyes are on Almonty's upcoming quarterly report, scheduled for March 26. This will be the first financial statement to reflect both the elevated tungsten price environment and the initial production from Sangdong. The results will serve as a critical test, indicating whether the company can translate favorable market conditions into tangible financial performance and if the operational ramp-up is meeting targeted volume goals.