Almonty Industries Receives Significant Price Target Upgrade Amid Supply Squeeze

DA Davidson hikes Almonty target to $25 as tungsten prices surge. Active mining begins at flagship Sangdong, with major institutional investors building positions.

Market analysts are growing increasingly bullish on Almonty Industries, with one firm issuing a substantial upward revision to its price target. The move is driven by a rapidly tightening supply picture for tungsten, a critical metal for which Almonty is a key emerging producer.

Analyst Upgrades and the Tungsten Price Surge

Investment bank DA Davidson has significantly raised its valuation for Almonty, lifting its price target to $25.00 from a previous $18.00. The firm maintains its "Buy" recommendation. This adjustment, made within the last 48 hours, stems from revised modeling assumptions, primarily concerning future tungsten pricing.

DA Davidson now anticipates the weekly Fastmarkets price fix could exceed $2,000 per metric ton unit (mtu). Furthermore, for Q1 2026, the bank has set its model price slightly above the current annual average spot price reported by Fastmarkets.

The rationale centers on what analysts describe as an "excessively" constrained supply from mine production. Recent geopolitical events in the Middle East have also led to a price divergence, with defense-grade tungsten powder decoupling from the base product ammonium parawolframate (APT).

Operational Milestones at the Flagship Mine

Positive developments at the company's Sangdong mine in South Korea are reinforcing this optimistic outlook. Reports confirm that active mining has commenced, with the first truckload of ore having already left the site. Processing plants are operating on schedule, with capacity slated to be ramped up progressively through 2027.

The Sangdong project boasts a reserve base of 7.9 million tonnes. A Phase II expansion, planned for 2027, is expected to boost annual capacity to up to 1.2 million tonnes.

Beyond Sangdong, other projects are advancing. These include a planned capacity increase at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal, resource definition work for the Sangdong molybdenum project, and progress at the Gertung Browns Lake project in the USA, which could be ready in the second half of 2026.

Institutional Investment and Macroeconomic Drivers

DA Davidson's upgrade follows a series of re-ratings. Couloir Capital, for instance, has raised its fair value target by more than 150% in this cycle—from C$7.69 to C$19.30—citing sustained tungsten prices above $1,000 per mtu and Sangdong's production ramp-up.

Institutional investor interest has surged in parallel. Van ECK Associates increased its position by 13,294.7% in Q4 to 11,239,482 shares, valued at $99.013 million. Encompass Capital Advisors established a new position worth $25.62 million, while Next Century Growth Investors initiated one valued at $16.345 million.

The macro backdrop is dominated by China, which controls an estimated 75–80% of global supply. The country significantly tightened export restrictions in late 2025. An analysis by BMO Capital Markets suggests certain Chinese tungsten exports temporarily ground to a complete halt during this period. Consequently, the tungsten price surged over 160% in 2025 and continued climbing into early 2026, prompting DA Davidson to raise its long-term base price assumptions through approximately 2028.

Market Performance and Upcoming Catalyst

As of March 6, 2026, Almonty's stock traded at $18.72, marking a weekly gain of +1.79%. The company's market capitalization stands at roughly $4.21 billion. On a year-to-date basis, the share price has skyrocketed +860%.

Investors are now looking ahead to the next key event. On March 19, Almonty is scheduled to release its quarterly results. This report is highly anticipated as it will be the first to translate the combination of elevated tungsten prices and the ongoing production ramp-up at Sangdong into concrete financial data.