Almonty Industries Receives Bullish Analyst Upgrades Following Mine Milestone

Almonty Industries sees analyst upgrades as its Sangdong tungsten mine begins production, targeting 40% of non-Chinese global supply. Price targets raised to up to $27.

Market analysts are revising their outlook on Almonty Industries Inc. (DRC) with increased price targets, citing the company's successful transition from a development-stage firm to an active mining operator. This shift is largely attributed to the commencement of production at its flagship Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea.

Strategic Production and Expansion Plans

The Sangdong mine has completed and commissioned its Phase 1 operations. Its processing plant is now operational with an annual capacity to treat approximately 640,000 tonnes of ore, yielding about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate each year. Since acquiring the project in 2015, Almonty has invested over USD 100 million in modernization efforts, which include constructing around four kilometers of underground tunneling and a completely new processing facility.

Looking ahead, a planned Phase 2 expansion is slated for commissioning in 2027. This development is expected to double the mine's annual ore processing capacity to roughly 1.2 million tonnes. At full production, Sangdong is projected to supply an estimated 40% of the global tungsten demand originating from outside China. This is a strategically significant figure, given that China currently controls about 88% of worldwide tungsten production.

Revised Financial Models and Price Targets

In response to the reduced project risk and improved cash flow visibility, Diamond Equity Research has adjusted its financial model. The firm lowered its discount rate by 100 basis points to 7.0% and raised its ammonium paratungstate (APT) price forecasts to USD 2,275 per metric tonne unit (MTU) for 2026 and USD 2,160 for 2027. Consequently, Diamond Equity increased its price target for Almonty to USD 27.00 per share.

This move aligns with a broader wave of positive analyst sentiment:
* D.A. Davidson maintains a Buy rating with a USD 25.00 price target, reiterated following Q4 results.
* B. Riley Financial upgraded its price target to USD 23.00 from USD 17.00 on March 20, with a Buy rating.
* Alliance Global Partners also raised its target to USD 19.25 from USD 14.00 on March 20, recommending a Buy.

Financial Performance: Revenue Growth Amidst Losses

The company's financial results reflect both operational progress and the challenges of its growth phase. Driven by a strong increase in the tungsten APT price, Almonty reported a 39% year-over-year revenue increase to USD 8.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2025. For the full year 2025, revenue climbed 13% to USD 32.5 million. The average APT price over the past twelve months reached USD 2,250 per MTU, representing a substantial 534% increase.

Despite this top-line growth, Almonty posted a net loss of USD 161.9 million for the full year 2025. A significant portion of this loss—USD 97.4 million—was attributed to a non-cash revaluation of derivative liabilities, a direct result of the company's sharply rising share price. General and administrative expenses also rose to USD 20.5 million for the year, compared to USD 6.2 million in the prior period.

Geopolitical Tailwinds Support Long-Term Outlook

Analysts point to favorable geopolitical dynamics as a structural demand driver. Western governments and industrial consumers are actively seeking to diversify their tungsten supply chains away from Chinese dominance, creating a supportive environment for non-Chinese producers like Almonty.

Alliance Global Partners has incorporated this outlook and the expected production ramp-up at Sangdong into its forecasts, projecting sales of CAD 297 million for fiscal 2026 and CAD 593 million for 2027. The achievement of these targets is seen as heavily dependent on the pace of the Phase 1 production increase and the timely launch of the Phase 2 expansion.