Almonty Industries: Capitalizing on a Critical Supply Crunch

As US-China tensions squeeze tungsten supply, Canadian miner Almonty sees surging prices, institutional investment, and analyst upgrades for its strategic mines.

A nearly overlooked industrial metal is gaining strategic prominence as trade tensions intensify between the United States and China. Tungsten, a material vital for defense manufacturing, is at the center of this shift. With the U.S. having ceased its own commercial production years ago, a significant geopolitical gap has emerged. This gap is creating a substantial opportunity for Canadian mining firm Almonty Industries, attracting considerable attention and capital from major Wall Street investors.

Institutional Investors Make Major Moves

The shifting market dynamics are reflected in substantial institutional investment activity. Several prominent hedge funds have either established new, significant positions in Almonty or aggressively increased their existing holdings in recent months. Recent regulatory filings reveal the scale of this movement:

• Van ECK Associates expanded its stake by over 13,000%, building a position valued at approximately $99 million.
• A new investment of roughly $25.6 million was made by Encompass Capital Advisors.
• Next Century Growth Investors initiated a position worth $16.3 million.
• Telemark Asset Management acquired a new equity package valued at $7.8 million.

The Tungsten Squeeze and Price Surge

The primary catalyst for this investor interest is a tightening global supply situation. After the U.S. administration imposed tariffs on Chinese tungsten products, Beijing responded with its own export restrictions by the end of 2025. Market experts describe the resulting scenario for the United States as particularly severe. The country urgently requires the metal for weapon systems, notably in the Middle East, yet it has lacked any commercial production for the past decade.

This supply constraint has triggered an extraordinary price rally. By mid-March 2026, the average price for Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) had skyrocketed by 534 percent to $2,250 per metric ton unit (MTU). In a move to safeguard domestic supply, the Trump administration has since exempted tungsten from country-specific tariffs.

Operational Progress and Analyst Confidence

Alongside these powerful macro trends, Almonty is demonstrating tangible operational progress. The first phase of its Sangdong mine in South Korea is now operational, producing approximately 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate annually. A planned expansion for 2027 is projected to double this output to 4,600 tonnes. Concurrently, the company is advancing drilling programs in Portugal and preparing the Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana for a production start in the second half of 2026.

Financial analysts are recognizing this progress with upward revisions to their price targets. Oppenheimer and B. Riley Financial recently raised their targets to $19 and $23 per share, respectively, while DA Davidson issued a $25 target. A particularly notable adjustment came from Diamond Equity Research, which doubled its earnings per share estimate for fiscal year 2026 from $0.23 to $0.45. Financially, Almonty is well-positioned for its expansion plans, with a strong cash position exceeding CAD $268 million following a recent capital raise.