Almonty Industries: A Wolfram Producer Emerges as Supply Chains Fracture

As tungsten prices soar 534%, Almonty Industries gains a key U.S. tariff exemption, drawing major institutional investment to secure Western supply chains against Chinese dominance.

The global scramble for critical minerals has found a new focal point in tungsten. As geopolitical tensions reshape supply lines, Almonty Industries is transitioning from a developer to a producer at a pivotal moment. The company’s recent operational milestones and a crucial U.S. tariff exemption are drawing intense institutional interest, positioning it as a potential linchpin in Western supply security.

Institutional investors are voting with their capital. The number of funds holding Almonty stock surged by more than 55% last quarter to 107. Leading the pack is Van ECK Associates, with a position worth approximately $99 million. New entrants include Encompass Capital Advisors and Next Century Growth Investors, with stakes valued at $25.6 million and $16.3 million, respectively. This influx coincides with a significant regulatory win: the U.S. government has explicitly exempted Almonty’s tungsten products from reciprocal tariff measures. This exemption covers ores, concentrates, and oxides under specific HTS codes, materials destined for Global Tungsten & Powders (GTP) in Pennsylvania under a long-term supply agreement.

The strategic importance of this move cannot be overstated against the current market backdrop. China, Russia, and North Korea are estimated to control a staggering 95% of global tungsten supply. After the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese tungsten, Beijing retaliated with export restrictions in late 2025. The resulting supply squeeze has sent the spot price for tungsten APT soaring by 534% to $2,250 per tonne by mid-March 2026. The semiconductor industry is feeling acute pressure, with Japanese suppliers warning South Korean customers of potential shortages of tungsten hexafluoride—a key gas for advanced 3D-NAND chip production—by this summer, leaving inventories potentially exhausted by June.

Almonty’s financial performance reflects a company in a capital-intensive build-out phase. For the fiscal year 2025, revenue increased by 13% to CAD 32.5 million. However, the company reported a net loss of approximately CAD 161.9 million, with adjusted EBITDA at negative CAD 17 million, driven largely by a 231% spike in general and administrative expenses. Following a December capital raise, Almonty holds a robust cash position of CAD 268.4 million. The market capitalization stands above CAD 3 billion, indicating high expectations for future cash flow.

Operational progress is the core driver. The company recently completed Phase 1 at its Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea. This phase processes about 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, producing roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. The next major catalyst is the planned commissioning of the Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana in the second half of 2026. This will mark Almonty’s first production on the North American continent, targeting an annual capacity of around 140,000 metric tonne units from a total resource of 7.53 million tonnes. The timing is critical, as U.S. defense contractors must source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers starting January 1, 2027.

Analyst sentiment is uniformly bullish, with eight buy recommendations and zero sell ratings, though price targets reveal a wide range of expectations. Recent revisions include B. Riley Financial raising its target to $23, DA Davidson setting a $25 target, and Oppenheimer increasing its target to $19. Diamond Equity Research nearly doubled its FY2026 EPS forecast to $0.45, anticipating a Q2 2026 profit of $0.12 per share. The stock currently trades at CAD 24.35, about 22% below its 52-week high of CAD 30.58.

The coming quarters will be decisive. The market’s generous valuation hinges on Sangdong reliably hitting its production targets and the successful ramp-up in Montana. For Western industries from defense to semiconductors, Almonty’s journey from project to producer represents a tangible step toward reducing a dangerous dependency.