Almonty Industries: A Surge Built on Solid Fundamentals

Almonty Industries' shares surge over 860% YTD as China's export curbs create a tungsten supply crisis, boosting its new Sangdong mine's strategic value.

Shares of Almonty Industries have delivered a staggering year-to-date return exceeding 860%. This remarkable performance is not a speculative bubble but is underpinned by concrete developments: a structural deficit in tungsten supply, significant export restrictions from China, and the successful ramp-up of a major new mine.

A Perfect Storm in the Tungsten Market

The global tungsten market is experiencing a profound supply squeeze. China, which controls an estimated 75-80% of worldwide supply, dramatically tightened export restrictions in late 2025. Analysis from BMO Capital Markets indicated that certain Chinese tungsten exports temporarily ground to a halt during this period. Consequently, the tungsten price surged over 160% in 2025 and has continued its upward trajectory in the opening weeks of the current year.

Compounding this dynamic, the United States intends to ban tungsten imports from China for defense purposes starting in 2027. This policy shift substantially elevates the strategic importance of non-Chinese producers. Market experts anticipate that global mine supply will remain severely constrained at least until 2028.

Sangdong Mine: A Strategic Asset Comes Online

At the heart of Almonty's story is the Sangdong mine in South Korea's Gangwon Province, one of the largest tungsten deposits globally with 7.9 million tonnes in reserves. The company commenced active mining operations there in December 2025. Processing facilities are running according to schedule, with capacity slated for a phased expansion through 2027. Phase II of the project targets an annual capacity of 1.2 million tonnes. The long-term ambition is to supply a minimum of 40% of the non-Chinese global market.

The company is advancing other projects in parallel. These include a capacity expansion at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal, resource definition work on the molybdenum project at Sangdong, and progress at the Gertung-Browns-Lake project in the USA, which could be operational in the second half of 2026.

Analyst Confidence and Institutional Validation

This compelling backdrop has captured the attention of both research firms and major investors. DA Davidson reinforced its Buy rating on Almonty while lifting its price target by 39%, from $18 to $25. The firm cited updated pricing assumptions in its model, expecting the Fastmarkets weekly benchmark to remain permanently above $2,000 per metric tonne unit (mtu). The bank described worldwide mine supply as "extremely limited," noting that prices for defense-critical tungsten powders have already decoupled from the base ammonium paratungstate product.

In the same cycle, Couloir Capital raised its target from C$7.69 to C$19.30—an increase of more than 150%—referencing sustained tungsten prices above $1,000 per mtu and the ongoing production ramp-up at Sangdong.

Institutional interest is growing in lockstep. The number of funds holding positions jumped by over 55% last quarter to 107. Van Eck Associates increased its stake by 13,295% in Q4 to approximately 11.2 million shares, a position worth nearly $99 million. New positions were initiated by Encompass Capital Advisors and Next Century Growth Investors, valued at $25.6 million and $16.3 million, respectively. This institutional support was flanked by two U.S. capital raises in 2025 that generated aggregate gross proceeds exceeding $219 million.

The Upcoming Quarterly Report: A Key Milestone

All eyes are now on the company's quarterly results, scheduled for release on March 19. This will be the first financial report to reflect the tangible impact of elevated tungsten prices and the ongoing production ramp at Sangdong. Consequently, it stands as the initial concrete evidence for whether the fundamental re-rating of the equity is translating into the financial statements.